The projected fair value for Eos Energy Enterprises is US$6.55 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of US$6.02 suggests Eos Energy Enterprises is potentially trading close to its fair value
The US$6.75 analyst price target for EOSE is 3.0% more than our estimate of fair value
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (NASDAQ:EOSE) by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they’re fairly easy to follow.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company’s value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
-US$60.2m
US$34.4m
US$55.0m
US$78.5m
US$102.7m
US$125.9m
US$146.8m
US$165.3m
US$181.5m
US$195.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x3
Analyst x1
Est @ 59.71%
Est @ 42.72%
Est @ 30.83%
Est @ 22.51%
Est @ 16.68%
Est @ 12.60%
Est @ 9.74%
Est @ 7.74%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.4%
-US$55.1
US$28.8
US$42.0
US$54.8
US$65.6
US$73.4
US$78.3
US$80.6
US$80.9
US$79.6
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$529m
Story Continues