Fuel queues would stretch across Lagos, Johannesburg, Kinshasa, Cairo, and Nairobi. Planes grounded. Trucks immobilised. Hospitals in darkness. Cities in chaos. The continent’s economic engine would grind to a halt within a matter of days.

This isn’t a worst-case scenario exaggerated to cause alarm. It’s a strategic blind spot hiding in plain sight. Despite producing more than 5 million barrels of crude oil daily, the continent still imports over 70 percent of its refined petroleum products. The truth is, this dependence leaves Africa dangerously overexposed.

If imports were to stop, the collapse wouldn’t just be technical – it would be systemic. Today, Africa is deeply reliant on fuel imports, leaving it exposed to shocks with immediate and far-reaching consequences.

A Continent Held Hostage by Its Fuel Imports

The fallout from a prolonged disruption to fuel imports in Africa would escalate quickly and across multiple fronts.
Aviation, trucking, and construction sectors would grind to a halt, with jet fuel shortages effectively isolating countries. Millions of tonnes of goods, medicines, and food would be stranded in warehouses and ports, unable to move. Critical infrastructure would fail as diesel-powered generators essential to hospitals, telecom towers, water systems, and banks shut down.

In small rural communities, clinics would lose power; in cities of ten million, water pressure could collapse. Then, as supply chains fracture and basic services falter, energy insecurity would escalate into broader social unrest. Fuel shortages would drive food inflation, blackouts, and economic paralysis conditions ripe for political instability across the continent.
Entire sectors would collapse overnight.

Mining in South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, the DRC, and Zambia would halt. Copper exports from Zambia and cobalt – critical to the global electric vehicle supply chain – would be stranded in Congo. Ghana’s gold production, already under pressure, would freeze. Oil rigs, vessels, and haul trucks would fall silent. Billions of dollars in revenue lost within days.

Africa’s Energy Paradox: Resource-Rich, Refinery-Poor

Africa is rich in crude oil but suffers from a persistent lack of refining capacity. The continent hosts over 40 refineries, yet many are outdated, underutilised, or idle. Nigeria, Africa’s top oil producer, has a nominal refining capacity of 1.1 million barrels per day, including the new 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery. Still, it relies on imports for over half its fuel needs.

Across the continent, crude production outpaces refining. At the Congo Energy & Investment Forum, plans were announced to double the country’s crude output to 500,000 bpd, but the CORAF Refinery in Pointe Noire can currently process only 24,000 bpd, with a planned increase to 40,000 – far below potential despite proximity to key markets like the DRC.

Meanwhile, demand is rising fast. Africa’s population is projected to hit 2.5 billion by 2050, with energy needs expected to double.

This dependence on imported refined products undermines economic sovereignty, widens trade deficits, destabilises currencies, and impedes industrialisation.

It also threatens the goals of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by reinforcing external dependencies rather than building internal resilience.
Addressing this imbalance requires a coordinated, continent-wide response – one that ARDA has already begun to shape.

ARDA’s Vision: Energy Security as a Catalyst for Prosperity

This year’s ARDA Week 2025 conference in Cape Town was held under the theme “Africa First,” reflecting the African Refiners and Distributors Association’s enduring vision for the continent to take charge of its own energy future refining, distributing, and powering its economies on its own terms.

Energy security isn’t a luxury – it’s a lifeline. Without energy sovereignty, there is no sustainable development. This is about more than infrastructure it’s about Africa’s future.

To avert the economic paralysis that a sudden halt in fuel imports would trigger, ARDA is leading a continental strategy focused on five pillars:

Upgrading and scaling refining capacity through resilient, commercially viable projects.

Harmonising fuel specifications and regulations to unlock intra-African trade.

Attracting investment through transparency, bankable projects, and risk mitigation frameworks.

Developing infrastructure – pipelines, depots, storage terminals, LPG bottling plants and logistics networks.

Building human capital in regulation, engineering, finance, and operations.

One flagship initiative is expanding access to clean LPG in households and underserved regions – creating millions of jobs while reducing dependence on biomass.

This transformation won’t happen through advocacy alone. It demands urgent, coordinated action.

Securing Africa’s Energy Future

First, governments must cut red tape and streamline project approvals to accelerate implementation timelines. Infrastructure bottlenecks that make local refining and distribution uncompetitive must be addressed to enable a more efficient and scalable downstream sector.

Equally critical is the mobilisation of domestic capital. With over $4 trillion locked in pension funds, insurance pools, and sovereign wealth funds, smart policies are needed to de-risk energy investments and unlock this vital source of financing. Empowering regulators with both the autonomy and technical capacity to enforce standards is essential to ensure consistency, transparency, and investor confidence.

In parallel, Africa must break down internal trade barriers so that fuel, capital, and technical expertise can flow freely across borders, driving regional integration. Financial innovations such as carbon credits, blended finance, and guarantee mechanisms offer valuable tools to scale investment and reduce project risk.

Strategic stocks must be part of the equation. Many African countries hold only a few days’ worth of fuel reserves – a vulnerability in the face of global supply disruptions. Yet creating national or regional stockholding frameworks is both practical and affordable. Minimum stock obligations, backed by reporting systems and modest levies, could significantly improve resilience without burdening consumers. Many countries already have sufficient depot capacity to increase stock levels – what’s needed is policy coordination and political commitment.

None of this will succeed without strong political will and a unified voice from African leadership. Energy sovereignty must become a continental priority – not just for growth, but for long-term resilience and prosperity.

Crisis or Catalyst? Africa’s Energy Turning Point

A 30-day shutdown of fuel imports would cripple the continent – but it could also be the wake-up call Africa needs. This isn’t just a supply chain risk anymore; it marks a strategic inflection point. The choice is clear: remain exposed to external shocks or seize the moment to invest in refining capacity, infrastructure, and workforce development to secure lasting energy sovereignt.

“Refine, baby, refine” has become the rallying cry in recent years. But this goes beyond fuel – it’s about building the backbone of industrialisation, deepening regional integration, and unlocking shared prosperity.

With the right leadership, Africa can transform today’s dependency into tomorrow’s strength. Building modern, resilient refining systems won’t happen overnight, but coordinated action and bold investment can, over the next decade, deliver the energy security needed to power inclusive, sustainable growth across the continent.
Fuel by fuel. Refinery by refinery. Africa must power its own future – not in reaction to crisis, but in pursuit of opportunity.

Anibor Kragha is the Executive Secretary of the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA).