Weekly Significant Activity Report – August 23, 2025

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1. SS: This post analyzes some significant geopolitical developments from August 16-23 involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. 

   Key events covered include the Kremlin rebuffs US efforts to arrange direct negotiations between Zelensky and Putin and provide Ukraine with substantive security guarantees; China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi conducts a whirlwind diplomatic tour of South Asia amid a shift in US relations from India to Pakistan; China puts on a major show of force in disputed waters in the West Philippine Sea; North Korea publicly celebrates with contributions to Russia’s war effort in Kursk. 

   Things to keep a close eye on:

   1. South Korea previously reported that North Korea was planning a new deployment of combat troops to Russia. Does this week’s celebrations for the Korean People’s Army preface such a deployment or indicate a change of plans.

   2. India has resumed purchasing oil from Russia (arguably an action within its national interest) but is it really prepared to cozy up to Beijing out of spite for the US (arguably not in its long-term national interest)?

   3. What will Russia’s counter proposal’s to direct negotiations with Zelensky be? Merely a regurgitation of the same stalling tactics or new means of assuring the Trump Administration that progress is being made?

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