India’s exports of petroleum products fell 16% year-on-year to $12.3 billion in the first four months of FY26, down from $14.7 billion in the same period last year, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC).In volume terms, however, exports remained largely unchanged at 20.1 million tonne during the period. Imports of refined oil products declined by 4% on-year to $7.6 billion during the four-month period.
Impact of New EU Sanctions
The country imported 16.7 million tonnes of petroleum products, largely unchanged from the same period of last fiscal.Looking ahead, India’s refined oil exports face fresh headwinds following the European Union’s latest sanctions package on Russia. Europe has emerged as India’s biggest market for refined fuel since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, and new restrictions could significantly disrupt flows.
As part of its measures against Moscow, the EU has imposed sanctions on the Indian oil refinery owned by Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy and tightened the oil price cap. Additional restrictions include new banking curbs and a ban on the Nord Stream pipelines.
Challenges and future outlook for Indian refiners
In a legal text on sanctions, the EU also said, “Petroleum products imported from third countries which were net exporters of crude oil in the previous calendar year shall be considered to have been obtained from domestic crude oil and not from crude oil originating in Russia, unless a competent authority has reasonable grounds to believe that they have been obtained from Russian crude oil.”Nayara Energy pushed back against the measures, stating its refinery continues to run smoothly and supply the domestic market.“Despite the supply chain inhibitions caused due to the EU sanctions, we remain committed in maintaining reliable transportation of our products via coastal, rail, and road networks to efficiently serve our customers and ensure there is no impact to our Indian consumers,” it said.
Given the banking, shipping, and regulatory complexities inherent in executing sanctioned barrels, both public and private refiners may have to hedge via term deals, diversify sourcing, or pass on costs. The sanctions including restrictions on imports of fuels refined from Russian crude could also impact privately owned Reliance Industries which has become a major importer of Russian oil lately with significant exports to Europe.
Kpler anticipates a temporary decline in crude processing volumes of around 250,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of 2025, as refiners such as Reliance Industries, Indian Oil Corp, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals commence planned maintenance.