Is Britain heading for the summer of discontent?

11 comments
  1. Authors: Jill Treanor and Laith Al-Khalaf

    Food delivery driver Raja Khan — Iki to his friends — used to start work at 10am and clock off at 7pm. But at the end of last year, he realised he would have to keep working until midnight to make ends meet.

    Even so, Khan, who works in Sheffield for Stuart, a delivery platform for Just Eat, is still making cutbacks — including to the way he and his young family eat. “We’re buying smaller portions just to get around the price rises,” he said.

    The 39-year-old is one of Britain’s “working poor” — struggling to get by despite being employed.

    Experts predict their number will rise in the coming months. Inflation is the highest for 30 years, hitting 7 per cent in March, and is forecast to go higher. Wages, which rose by 4 per cent on average in the three months to February, are failing to keep pace. The Office for Budget Responsibility has warned that disposable income — including the effects of inflation — is on course for its biggest fall since records began in the 1950s.

    Khan faces a conundrum. The more he works, the more he has to spend on petrol, with prices at the pumps rising at a record rate as Russia’s war in Ukraine risks constraining supplies of oil and gas.

    “It used to cost me £20 a day in petrol, but now with the price rise and three hours more driving, that has easily gone up by £30 every day,” he said.

    Khan, who has worked for Stuart for four years, was among a dozen fellow food couriers protesting outside Greggs in Sheffield’s city centre last week in what is being described as the longest-running gig economy strike.

    Every lunchtime since December 6 — apart from two days between Christmas and New Year — one of his co-workers has been standing outside one of Just Eat’s big clients, such as Greggs, McDonald’s and KFC, to highlight the 24 per cent cut in the price of each delivery being offered by Stuart to its couriers.

    They are among the rising number of workers taking industrial action at a time when the economy is being contorted by the effects of the pandemic. While inflation is at a 30-year high, unemployment is at a near 50-year low — and for the first time since records began, there is now a vacancy for every unemployed worker. In the recession after the 2008 financial crisis, there were five workers chasing every job, according to data compiled by banking group ING. This is raising questions about whether workers are going to be powerful enough to wrest inflation-busting wage rises from employers, and whether unions will be able to exercise the same power they demonstrated in the 1970s in securing pay rises.

    The Trades Union Congress (TUC) has already registered the highest number of industrial disputes (300) in five years — after a period of record-low industrial strife — and some experts see opportunities for unions to prove their purpose.

    “Most people join a union for protection — if something happens at work, and for a pay rise. The critical thing will be, can the trade unions demonstrate that this is their core purpose rather than political campaigning?” said Neil Carberry, chief executive of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC).

    A new broom of union leaders, such as Sharon Graham at Unite, is trying to shift the focus from influencing politics in the Labour Party to the nitty-gritty of what unions used to do: getting better deals for workers.

    It comes just as the threat of stagflation — a period of high inflation and low economic growth — stalks the economy as it did in the late 1970s. Then, Britain was rocked by more than 2,000 strikes in the infamous “winter of discontent” that ultimately cleared the way for Margaret Thatcher’s election victory in 1979 and her reforming economic policies, including clamping down on union power.

    Steve Coulter, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics, can see the parallels but also the differences. “The obvious difference is that back then, the unions were extremely strong and extremely militant,” he said.

    And, Coulter pointed out, the economy was different. In the 1970s, over half of Britain’s workforce were members of a union; now that proportion, at least in the private sector, stands at 13 per cent.

    Many workers back in the 1970s were employed by a relatively small number of huge manufacturers, making it easy for them to communicate with each other and mobilise. Now, many low-paid workers, such as Khan, are one-man bands operating in the gig economy.

    The national strikes that took place in the late 1970s are also less likely now because of rules introduced in 2016 requiring a ballot to secure a 50 per cent turnout of members. Meesha Nehru at the Labour Research Department said a ballot by Unison in December of 370,000 council and school support staff, over a 1.75 per cent pay rise, would had to have been the biggest vote since the law changes to meet the threshold. It failed.

    The Communication Workers Union has raised the prospect of the first BT-wide strike action in 34 years and edging towards a national ballot. And Dave Ward, general secretary of the CWU, said last week that he would not rule out a general strike by all workers — at least in theory. “Things are really difficult for people right now,” Ward told LBC radio.

    Workers are also being rallied to express their views without taking strike action as the TUC is holding a “national demonstration” on June 18 to demand a pay rise for all workers.

    Local disputes are under way across Britain. In Coventry, a battle over pay with bin lorry drivers employed by the local council started in January. Asda workers were recently balloted on whether to take industrial action. University lecturers have gone on strike over pension reforms three times in the past five years. Last year, workers at Clarks shoes in Somerset walked out for two months over a 15 per cent pay cut. Even the besuited employees at City regulator the Financial Conduct Authority voted last week for industrial action.

    There is a feeling that the balance of power weighted in favour of management for decades is beginning to shift. Roger Barker at the Institute of Directors said that while members were struggling with labour shortages and facing calls for wage rises he did not see evidence of a return of organised labour. “It’s the broader trends in the labour market which are favouring employees at the moment,” said Barker.

    And the pressure is not just coming from workers. Sainsbury’s recently raised pay for some of its staff shortly after shareholders, including Legal & General, filed a resolution for the annual meeting calling for the supermarket to become an accredited living-wage employer. The investors were concerned that staff pay in parts of the capital were not keeping up with spiralling inflation and called for them to be given the real living wage. This wage is voluntary and set higher than the legally binding minimum wage. It is rising by 6.6 per cent, which at first looks generous, but, as Hannah Slaughter, economist at think tank the Resolution Foundation, said: “It’s not going to be enough to keep up with inflation.”

    Eyes will be fixed on 5.5 million public sector workers for whom Rishi Sunak has promised an end to the pay freeze introduced at the outset of the pandemic. For all that, though, the picture of pay not keeping pace with prices is far from uniform. In the private sector, skilled workers moving jobs are enjoying huge pay rises, particularly in technology. James Reed, chairman of the Reed recruitment agency, said: “Individuals are moving for big increases.” The REC has recorded the largest rise in permanent starting salaries since it began surveying the subject in 1997. British Airways is offering signing-on bonuses of £1,000 for cabin crew. Who needs a union when moving jobs can be so lucrative?

    But what about those who do not switch jobs? Carberry at the REC wonders where the onus might shift from individuals demanding pay rises back to collective bargaining, as everyone will be hit by the cost-of-living crisis. According to the Institute of Employment Rights, 80 per cent of the workforce were covered by collective bargaining in the 1980s; now the figure is nearer 20 per cent.

    The power of collective bargaining through unions was blamed for fuelling inflation in the 1970s, as workers had the spending power to cope with higher prices. But Alan Shipman, senior lecturer in economics at the Open University, said the reality was not so simple. He cited research from the late economist Frank Wilkinson showing that higher taxes had been eroding take-home pay while pre-tax pay had barely kept up with inflation.

    Even so, given the high demand for workers from so many employers, economists have anticipated wages rising across the board — and are confounded by what has actually happened. “It’s an odd situation where economists would expect pay inflation to take off at this point, and working people actually to be able to start raising their pay. But we’re not seeing that — prices are still rising faster than wages,” Shipman said.

    Still, Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, has urged employees not to ask for big pay rises. He met unions last week and they told him that workers could not be blamed. “Inflation is not being driven because care assistants are demanding a decent wage,” said Paul Nowak, deputy general secretary of the TUC. “The chancellor himself said that inflation has been driven by what’s happening to energy prices; it’s not about wages spiralling out of control.”

    Back in Sheffield, Brendan Hamill, the UK managing director of Stuart, insisted that the impact of the new pay regime on delivery drivers’ wages had been “neutral to positive”. He said: “We take courier concerns very seriously and aim to be the most courier-centric platform in the sector. The ongoing action by a small number of couriers does not represent the sentiment of the couriers we interact with on a regular basis.”

  2. Well, this country is so apathetic and half the population support the cause of the discontent so really all that will happen is anyone complaining will be labelled woke.

  3. We need people protesting. Discontent should be encouraged!

    Only one party has been in charge the past 12 years (except for FaceClegg’s stint).

Leave a Reply