[OC] Data Center vs. Office Construction in the US

Posted by jcceagle

9 comments
  1. I got.the data set from the U.S. Consensus Bureau and processed it using Python. The chart itself was created using D3.

  2. Are you trying to imply some kind of causal relationship? Seems like a highly suggestive plot with no proof. also the the data is not even particularly correlated until 2023. Im not making any particular assertion here because I dont have anything to back it up, but I am hoping you do, as the maker of the plot. What are you saying? did something happen in 2023?

  3. I can only assume the current trend line will continue indefinitely.
    I would not weep for less office buildings. But more data centers is crap. I work in technology with cloud services, I find it hard to believe we need massive infrastructure growth at this pace just to serve more TikToks or build the thirtieth mediocre AI. If the current twisted tech boom is real, it has to get more efficient to the point these facilities are less needed, not more. Feels bubbly.

  4. The data center plot reminds me of the fiber telecom buildup leading to the Worldcom crash. AI models are starting to focus on efficiency now.

    Between the recent Google paper claiming 33x reduction in query cost, the paper about 95% of ai pocs not returning their roi, and model pricing being driven by complexity and run time, consumers are going to demand more efficient models.

    Plus Moores law.

  5. Correlation =/= causation.

    AI driving data center investment on one hand. On the other high rates with capacity slowly recovering from a 2020 to 2022 work from home increase suppressing office construction.

    Though, change in the dynamic is still worth noting and make for a good broader narrative on changes in corporate investments.

  6. Where does electricity come from? Everyone’s cost going up due to denand, not just the businesses creating the demand.

  7. Now do one for Distribution Center Vs. Brick and Mortar shops

  8. Interesting, but dollars is probably the wrong metric to use. Office costs are falling and data center is (???? – lots of assumptions matter, like if just the building, vs racks, equipment).

    Square feet might be better.

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