Energy think tank Ember has analysed the challenges posed by rising cooling-related electricity demand in Türkiye. In just the last three years, consumption has increased by 26 per cent, reaching 10 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024. From 2022 to 2024, demand grew at an average annual rate of 12 per cent. During the summer months, cooling accounted for 8 per cent of total electricity consumption, with monthly consumption at times reaching 3 TWh – equivalent to three months of electricity consumption by all industrial facilities in Istanbul.
During the same period, Türkiye’s electricity system recorded an all-time high in hourly consumption, reaching 59 gigawatt-hours (GWh), 18 per cent of which was attributed to cooling. In the summer months, more than 10 per cent of electricity consumption between 12 and 6 PM came from cooling alone, with this share exceeding 18 per cent on weekends and public holidays due to lower overall demand.
Growing gap between winter and summer peaks
Since 2008, with the widespread adoption of air conditioning driven by rising temperatures, Türkiye’s highest hourly electricity consumption has occurred in summer rather than winter. The difference between winter and summer peaks has increased twelvefold since 2008, exceeding 9 GWh in 2025.
The growing gap between winter and summer peaks requires production, transmission and distribution systems to be designed for the highest usage levels, even if these occur only for a few weeks each year. This reduces the capacity utilisation rates of power plants, increasing electricity production costs. Short-term demand surges also place instantaneous loads on grid components such as transmission lines and transformer centres, raising the risk of failures and outages.
Moreover, the burden of cooling-related consumption on the electricity grid is expected to grow in the coming years. Each 1 °C rise in temperature is estimated to require an additional 0.77 gigawatts (GW) of electricity generation capacity, making the strain on the grid from rising temperatures even more acute. By 2035, electricity consumption from cooling could more than triple, reaching 35 TWh, while peak hourly electricity demand may increase 1.5 times to 85 GWh.
Solar energy can be a natural solution
Solar energy peaks during the same hours as cooling demand, making it a natural part of the solution. To address rising cooling demand, measures such as expanding distributed solar power generation, strengthening data infrastructure on air conditioner usage, promoting energy efficiency policies and implementing flexibility solutions could help manage the grid in an efficient, clean and sustainable manner.