Australia, however, continues to show resilience, with employment growing 2.3% over the past year and unemployment only expected to lift modestly from 4.2% to 4.5%.
“Even so, wage gains in Australia are expected to continue outpacing those in New Zealand,” Ranchhod said.
Housing market outlook
House prices in New Zealand fell 17% from their peak as rates rose but have since stabilised, supported by rate cuts and steady new construction.
In contrast, Australia’s housing market has proven more resilient, with only modest falls during the tightening cycle and firmer growth over the past year.
“While firmer than in New Zealand, recent housing market momentum in Australia has been modest compared to historic trends,” Ranchhod said.