Is Croatia facing a demographic turnaround? Speaking on N1 television, demographer Stjepan Šterc said the country may end 2025 with more newcomers than deaths — but not because of higher birth rates.
Šterc noted that in the past two years Croatia has had a positive migration balance, with around 70,000 people moving in annually versus 40,000 leaving. Yet natural decline is worsening: by the end of the year, Croatia is expected to see 22,000 more deaths than births.
“New arrivals boost the numbers, but they are not permanent residents, and they do not contribute to population reproduction,” warned Šterc, stressing that the population continues to age while young, educated families leave.
He called for strategic demographic policies, including tax breaks for larger families and targeted settlement plans for depopulated regions. “Without decisive measures, Croatia may have more people on paper, but not a sustainable future,” he said.