Delhi’s refusal to allow Trump to take credit for India Pakistan ceasefire led to US tariffs: Jefferies’ big claim

Global brokerage firm Jefferies dropped a bombshell on Friday as it suggested that the reason behind the US’s steep tariffs on India is that New Delhi did not allow President Donald Trump to mediate during the hostilities between India and Pakistan. This implies that Trump was denied the opportunity to make his case for the Nobel Peace Prize. 

Jefferies further explained that the US President’s “personal pique” led to 50 per cent tariffs on Indian imports, which led to a souring of the Indo-US ties. 

“Tariffs are primarily the consequence of the American president’s personal pique that he was not allowed to play a role in seeking to end the long-running acrimony between India and Pakistan,” the report said.

India has consistently rejected third-party mediation in Kashmir. Yet, Trump claimed he averted a “nuclear war” between India and Pakistan by threatening tariffs, despite India clarifying the ceasefire was bilateral.

He has repeated the claim and even revived his mediation offer, irking New Delhi.

It further stated that India was steadfast on its “red line” of no third-party mediation despite being faced with the risk of massive economic costs. This, according to the brokerage, rubbed Trump the wrong way and denied him the opportunity to bolster his case for the Nobel Prize. 

Further, the brokerage underlined that another sticking point during the negotiations was agriculture. It highlighted that around 25 crore farmers and labourers working in allied sectors depend on agriculture, which accounts for around 40 per cent of the workforce. 

Before the conflict with Pakistan, India and the US were close to cracking a bilateral trade deal. The Pahalgam attack in April this year disrupted the pace of negotiations, causing the current impasse. 

The tariffs also coincided with India’s purchase of Russian crude oil, which is also a contentious issue for the US amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Jefferies noted these tensions are not just economic but also strategic since they potentially push New Delhi closer to Beijing. 

As per Jefferies, India has a substantial import reliance on China, with annualised imports from China amounting to $118 billion by July 2025, representing 16 per cent of total imports and a 13 per cent on-year growth.