Trump’s US Fossil Fuel Revival Nudges Global Emissions Higher

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1. #Summary: USA accounted for more than half of the increase in CO2 emissions in H1 2025, with its emissions increasing more than China’s fell

   Global greenhouse gas emissions rose 0.13% in the first half of 2025 to 30.99 billion tonnes CO₂e compared to the same period in 2024, driven primarily by increased fossil fuel operations emissions that grew by 1.5% (77.65 million tonnes CO₂e increase), with the United States accounting for more than half of that increase.

   **Key Findings:**

   **Country Performance:** The US saw emissions rise by 48.57 million tonnes CO₂e (1.43% increase) in H1 2025, while China achieved the largest absolute reduction with emissions falling by 45.37 million tonnes CO₂e (0.51% decrease). Mexico and Australia also posted notable declines of 1.71% and 1.51% respectively.

   **Sector Breakdown:** Fossil fuel operations drove the largest emissions growth, while the power sector saw the biggest decline, falling 0.8% (60.27 million tonnes CO₂e decrease), led primarily by reductions in China and India where power emissions dropped 1.7% and 0.8% respectively.

   **June 2025 Monthly Data:** Monthly emissions for June 2025 totaled 5.12 billion tonnes CO₂e, representing a 0.29% increase versus June 2024, with methane emissions rising 0.49% to 34.82 million tonnes CH₄.

   **Mixed Global Progress:** While China, Mexico, and Australia showed decarbonization progress, major economies including the US, India, EU, Indonesia, and Brazil all recorded emissions increases in the first half of 2025, with India rising 0.21%, the EU up 0.15%, Indonesia increasing 0.39%, and Brazil growing 1.24%.

   The data reveals a concerning trend where US fossil fuel emissions growth significantly outpaced China’s broader emissions reductions, highlighting the ongoing challenge of global decarbonization efforts.

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