The elephant in the room — Russia won’t agree to Ukraine security guarantees, Europe can’t enforce them

5 comments

1. Imma gonna say it. Europe (mostly the places far away from Russian danger) need a few Russian “stray” missile/drone strikes to wake up from their complacent sleep walking.

   Let them feel the fire and danger. Otherwise they will never wake up. 

2. What good are security guarantees from a country that literally ignored the last security guarantees, so they could invade the people they were guaranteeing?

   Thats like the isrealis agreeing to Hamas, or literally another Palestinian government(look it up), guaranteeing they wont attack again.

   I love getting robbed, I love it more when I get robbed by the same person over and over. I really love that they believe me, about them “never robbing me again, they promise”, when they rob me each time..No really, I have a robbing fetish and am real good at acting, kinda sick and in no way related to the article but there it is.

3. Ukraine’s actual, like g term security guarantee is its military.

   Europe’s contribution (and the US) to that is money, weapons, intelligence and suchlike. 

   A few thousand peacekeeping troops are a semi-diplomatic element, not a defence strategy. They need to enough to “be present.” Thats a deterent, a louder politicsl alarm. It creates options in the event of a war. The ability to reenforce peacekeepers cant be limited by treaty… and that matters more. 

   If peace breaks out, this will be the starting bell for the next faze. All the limitations and conditions will undergo change and it will be a race to generate military potential. Ammo will pile up. Training opportunities will  be significant. New weapon types can be added to Ukraine’s arsenal. 

   Security guarantees and arrangements will be a factor… but Europe should prepare to play dirty. The biggest, unexpoited european advantage is money. This needs to finally play. 

   The calculus next time needs to be that another invasion triggers a counteroffensive that immediately threatens Russia in ways that didn’t exist before. Massive depth strikes, counterinvasuon. 

   They’ve got cards to play… on this front. 

4. When people talk about security guarantees for Ukraine it often sounds like a nice phrase but the reality is that Russia has no incentive to respect any paper agreement and Europe does not have the teeth to enforce them. NATO membership is still the only truly credible shield, but that is off the table for now because of fears of direct war with Russia. EU membership is symbolic more than anything when it comes to security, and it is years away anyway. So what is left is exactly what Foreman said, Ukraine relying on its own army and the constant flow of western support. Money, weapons, training, intelligence, that is the only thing holding the line.

   It is depressing because it means Ukraine is stuck in this gray zone. They are not protected by Article 5, but they are also too deeply tied to the West to be abandoned. That creates an endless cycle where Russia keeps testing, keeps bombing, keeps grinding, while Ukraine is forced to hold out with whatever it can get. In a way the only real guarantee is the willingness of the US and EU publics to keep writing checks and sending arms. If that political will fades then all the talk of guarantees collapses instantly.

5. European nations can send armed forces to Ukraine, shoot down Russian planes and missiles, fight and drive Russia out of Ukraine.

   It’s ridicilous to think that Europe has no capability to protect itself.

   [edit] Just a realism check. There will be no ceasefire and no peace to keep/observe. Only way to have peace with Russia is to kick its teeth in and use maximal force to do so.

Comments are closed.