Iran might be on the brink of collapse, says a new report by UK-based Henry Jackson Society and adds that “the winds of change” are gathering around the Islamic Republic, even as the UN accuses Tehran of executing nearly 900 people already this year “as a tool of intimidation.”
The report says, if the Islamic Republic falls, “there is a danger that regime collapse could lead to a vacuum of governance that is accompanied by civil war.”
“This is an outcome that must be avoided at all costs for the Iranian people, and every step must therefore be made to ensure that any transition is quick and painless,” it added.
The report notes that the current Iranian regime remains deeply tied to the legacy of the Islamic Revolution. It further warns that the Ayatollah’s government is committed to “reconstituting its nuclear program and exporting terrorism both regionally and internationally, makes it an ongoing danger to the West”
Israel’s attack on Iran
Targeted attacks launched by Israel with the US in June on Iranian nuclear sites “set back the regime,” the report said, but “it has not eliminated the strategic and security threats posed by the regime.”
This was also a shift for Israel and the US. Until recently, Israel adopted a solely defensive stance, attacking Iranian proxies on its immediate borders. This protected Iran, which employs its terrorist proxies to expand its strategic reach.
Additionally, the Trump administration shifted from its ‘America First’ foreign policy, which was hesitant to engage in foreign interventions, to actively supporting Israel’s strikes by heavily bombing three Iranian enrichment sites, including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. “Suddenly Iran was exposed, and the regime appeared brittle,” the report noted.
What should be done next?
If Iran rebuilds its air defences, long-range missiles, missile launchers, or progresses in developing further enriched uranium for its nuclear program, both Israel and the US should contemplate conducting military strikes on a wide array of Iranian regime assets, the report said.
This involves Israel sustaining its recent air superiority over Iran to stop Iran from reestablishing its air defences. The goal of regime collapse remains justified, since Iran consistently asserts that it will not relinquish its enriched uranium or cease its ambitions to enrich uranium and revive its nuclear program.
The report advised Israel to uphold its air supremacy, which provides it operational freedom over Iran. Instead of simply targeting uranium enrichment facilities, Israel must accept that the regime’s very nature is what keeps its nuclear ambitions unchanged. In fact, attaining nuclear capability is considered essential for the regime’s survival.