Crude oil prices rise to $68.44 fueled by supply disruptions, OPEC+ production plans

Oil prices saw an uptick on Tuesday as worries regarding supply disruptions intensified due to the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. 

Brent crude increased by 29 cents, or 0.43 percent, reaching $68.44 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was priced at $64.92 a barrel, marking an increase of $0.31, or 0.48 percent. WTI futures did not settle on Monday because of the Labor Day holiday in the U.S.

Recent Ukrainian drone strikes have resulted in the shutdown of facilities responsible for at least 17 percent of Russia’s oil processing capacity, equating to 1.1 million barrels per day, according to calculations by Reuters. 

China’s vision for “a new global order” could further exacerbate geopolitical tensions. Chinese President Xi Jinping articulated his vision on Monday for a new global security and economic framework that prioritizes the “Global South,” presenting a direct challenge to the U.S. during a summit that also included the leaders of Russia and India.

China and India stand as the largest purchasers of crude oil from Russia, the world’s second-largest exporter. Trump has imposed additional tariffs on India concerning these purchases, but no such tariffs have been applied to China.

Investors are now looking forward to a meeting among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies on September 7 for potential insights regarding further output increases from the group.

Read more: Crude oil prices slip to $67.18 as rising output, U.S. tariffs offset supply disruptions

IEA revises oil demand forecast

Brent crude has been trading around $68.46 per barrel as of early September 2025, up slightly by about 0.51 percent from the previous day, although it is down 7.18 percent compared to the same period last year, reflecting overall market uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions and economic factors, as reported by Trading Economics. U.S. WTI crude was also modestly up near $65 per barrel but faces downward pressure from increased supply and demand concerns. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 680,000 barrels per day, signaling weaker-than-expected consumption due to slower economic growth particularly in China and efficiency improvements. This forecast contrasts with the higher demand projections by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC, underscoring divergent views on the energy market’s near-term trajectory.

OPEC+ production increase

OPEC+ members, including Russia, recently agreed to raise oil output by 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025, continuing a series of production hikes aimed at regaining market share after earlier cuts. These supply increases have contributed to price pressure despite ongoing geopolitical risks. The OPEC+ decision comes amid an environment of expanding non-Russian oil supply and strategic shifts in the alliance’s approach to market balance. The upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting on September 7 is keenly watched by investors for indications of further output adjustments, which could have significant ramifications for global oil prices and supply stability.

From a demand perspective, China’s oil consumption is expected to rise by about 1.1 percent in 2025, driven primarily by petrochemical demand linked to the growing electric vehicle market and plastic usage. This outlook is provided by a think tank affiliated with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). However, transportation fuel demand in China may have peaked due to a shift toward alternative energy vehicles, posing a mixed picture for future oil consumption growth in Asia’s largest market.

Geopolitical factors remain critical in shaping oil markets. The intensified conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to create supply disruptions, exemplified by Ukrainian drone strikes that temporarily shut down significant portions of Russia’s refining capacity. At the same time, China’s push for a new global economic order emphasizing the Global South and its strong energy ties with Russia and India add complexity and potential volatility to international energy relations.