Slovenia vs. Iceland prediction, pick for Tuesday 9/2/25

In EuroBasket 2025, the group stage is about to enter its fourth game day, and Luka Dončić’s Slovenia is hanging onto its Round of 16 berth by a thread. Slovenia picked up a much-needed win on Sunday against Belgium, triumphing 86-69 behind Dončić’s triple-double, and should have a decent shot of moving on, given that its remaining games — Iceland and Israel — are fairly easy.

Dončić’s squad will face Iceland at 11 a.m. ET (5 p.m. local) with an outside shot of punching its ticket to the Round of 16. In addition to a Slovenia win, that would also require Israel to defeat Belgium and France to triumph against already-qualified Poland, though both are heavy favorites. Zeleni are 15-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-1450 Moneyline) for the clash, with Iceland +850 on the Moneyline. The point total is set to 177.5.

Slovenia vs. Iceland prediction, pick

Dončić will determine his team’s fate. The five-time All-NBA First Teamer has had a tremendous group stage so far, averaging 33.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 9.7 assists per game on 42-30-89 shooting splits. He leads all players in points, assists, and steals per game, and he also ranks second in minutes per game in part because Slovenia has no other NBA players on its current roster.

The team’s second-leading scorer is Edo Murić, who’s played all but one of his professional seasons domestically, and the only other player averaging more than 10 points per game is Klemen Prepelič, who now plays in the United Arab Emirates after a successful career in several different European leagues. It’ll be critical for Murić, a 36.2% three-point shooter across his 10-year career, to knock down his shots; he nine-for-17 (52.9%) so far this tournament. Dončić will also need to limit his turnovers against Iceland, which has forced the the 11th-most steals per game.

The key for Zeleni will be slowing down Icelandic big man Tryggvi Hlinason, who leads all players with 37.5 minutes per game and ranks second with 11.3 boards per game. The seven-footer, who plays domestically for Spanish side Bilbao, has recorded a triple-double in each of his games while making 71.4% of his field goal tries, and he’s averaged two or more blocks per 36 minutes in six of his eight professional seasons.

Still, Iceland lacks depth, as outside of Hlinason, only Elvar Fridriksson has averaged double-digit points, and he’s shot just 35.5% from the field. Hlinason will need to dominate the glass against a team that ranks just 16th of the 24 sides in boards, and the Nordic side will also need to hit its threes at better than the 18.2% clip it’s hit so far. It’ll also need to limit its fouls, given Dončić’s prowess at the free-throw line. Jon Axel Gudmundsson, a point guard for Spain’s Miraflores, leads the tournament in fouls per game and seems likely to draw the Dončić assignment.

Ultimately, it should be a relatively easy win for Slovenia, but 15 points is a very difficult spread to cover, especially given the team’s question marks behind Dončić. Iceland has lost each of its games by 12 or fewer points, and Zeleni lost to Poland. Hlinason will do just enough on the glass for his team to cover the spread.

Best Bet: Iceland +15 (-112)