Reading Time: 3 minutes
As U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins his official visit to Ecuador today, he will find a nation at a crossroads. Drug-trade violence is on the rise, the economy remains stagnant, poverty persists, and emigration continues to drain the country of some of its most skilled and productive workers.
In May, President Daniel Noboa started his first full term with a clear mandate to restore security, fix the economy, and offer Ecuadorians a better future. However, fueled by the growing presence of organized crime, the nation’s homicide rate now matches that of the region’s most dangerous countries, and GDP growth has averaged just 1.5% over the past decade.
Amid these headwinds stands a misunderstood asset: nearly half a million Venezuelan migrants now living in Ecuador. This represents almost 3% of the population, more than double the Colombian diaspora in Ecuador.
These migrants are often linked in the public imagination to crime, job competition, and fiscal strain. Yet, evidence from many countries shows that –with good policy– migration can help Ecuador tackle crime and improve the economy.
Migrants and crime
Violent crime in Ecuador is driven by the local gangs, who are profiting from a booming drug trade and weakened institutions. While some migrants do engage in criminal activity, they are less likelyto do so than Ecuadorian citizens. In fact, preliminary findings from our ongoing research at the Center for Global Development show that Venezuelans are underrepresented among those detained for criminal activity relative to their share of the population, as illustrated in the figure below.
Moreover, the research shows that the vast majority of violent gang-related crime tends to rise mostin places where migration hasn’t, another sign that migration is not correlated with criminality.
In fact, migrants are far more often the victims of the criminal networks fueling insecurity. They are often targeted for extortion, violence and recruitment, in part because perpetrators know migrants without legal status are unlikely to seek help from the authorities. This is why when migrants get legal status, they actually help tackle crime. Once regularized, interacting with law enforcement becomes less of a risk to them, so they become more likely to report crime and assist police investigations, as happened in neighboring Colombia. As Noboa attempts to crack down on crime, migrants can be vital allies if given the opportunity through good policy.
Migrants and labor markets
The Ecuadorian labor force is aging and losing its young, educated workforce to emigration. Here, Venezuelans too, can be part of the solution: According to the Ecuadorian census, Venezuelans in Ecuador are overwhelmingly of working age, mostly in their 20s and 30s, and have higher-than-average rates of high school completion and technical training. This is exactly the demographic Ecuador needs.
But without legal status, this potential is going untapped. Skilled workers are destined to end up in informal jobs or underemployed, unable to contribute fully to the economy. A certified technician working as a day laborer or an engineer driving a taxi is all too common. This is not a failure of motivation or qualifications; it’s a failure of policy.
Far from increasing unemployment, Venezuelan migrants who have received a regular status in other countries contribute to the local economies without displacing local workers and, furthermore, become entrepreneurs creating firms, many of which are in the formal sector. In Bogotá alone, migrants have created 9,000 new businesses and 200,000 new jobs in the 3 year period between 2019 and 2022.
A policy crossroads
Noboa’s administration now faces a choice. With the right policies in place, the migrant population could boost job creation, tax revenue, and economic revitalization. Perhaps the most direct path would be to continue the regularization process launched during the administration of former President Guillermo Lasso (2021-23) and continued under Noboa’s leadership. This successful three-step process provided legal status to around 200,000 of Ecuador’s approximately 450,000 Venezuelan migrants. The program has since been interrupted. Resuming this program would be a straightforward way to reduce crime and add much-needed dynamism to the economy.
The IMF estimates that if Ecuador were to fully integrate Venezuelan migrants into its economy, it could add up to 0.25 percentage points to Ecuador’s GDP growth each year. While that may sound modest, it represents a meaningful boost for an economy stuck in neutral.
To move in this direction, Ecuador doesn’t need a silver bullet, but it does need a strategic shift toward evidence-based policies. These include simplifying and expanding legal pathways; fast-tracking recognition of degrees and certifications; including migrants in training programs and job matching services; and unlocking international support from multilaterals and philanthropies to help cover upfront integration costs.
The public’s skepticism of migration poses a political challenge. Even so, the data shows that migration is not a threat but a lever for growth. Smart public campaigns grounded in evidence can shift perception, reduce stigma, and create the space necessary for constructive policymaking. It would be enough to present the true economic and social contributions migrants are already making, and from there to the larger role they could play in Ecuador’s future.
Noboa assumed power amid high hopes from a population seeking quick, effective, and lasting solutions. Venezuelan migrants can be an asset to the country if the government has the courage and vision to fully embrace the benefits of migration.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Marcela EscobariReading Time: 3 minutes
Escobari is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. She was previously assistant administrator for USAID’s Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean and has served on the White House National Security Council.
Tags: Ecuador, Migration, Venezuela
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Any opinions expressed in this piece do not necessarily reflect those of Americas Quarterly or its publishers.