The soaring costs of bird feed and production could mean a return to the 1950s where poultry was a luxury meat — and costlier than beef.
Chicken could become as costly as beef because of the spiralling cost of bird feed, according to the chief executive of Co-op supermarkets — the first time that has happened since the 1950s.
Steve Murrells, a former senior manager at Sainsbury’s and Tesco, said: “Chicken could become as expensive as beef. The chicken industry has particular challenges because of the feed costs. The majority of cattle raised in this country are fed grass and it is not required to have high-dense feed. Chicken, which was incredibly cheap and great value for money, is rising quicker than any other protein.”
While a kilogram of beef is usually at least three times the price of chicken, there are already instances where pricing is on a par. In Marks & Spencer, organic free-range chicken breasts and organic British beef rump steak are both £24.15 a kilogram. A pack of two Tesco Finest beef rump steaks are £16.67 a kilogram, while its Finest corn-fed free range chicken fillets are £16.50.
Restaurants and takeaways specialising in chicken such as Nando’s and KFC have increased their prices in recent months. Ten chicken wings with two sides at Nando’s rose from £14.95 to £15.45 last November and to £16 last month.
The 2 Sisters food group, the UK’s largest chicken supplier, said annual food inflation of 15 per cent “will be needed to even begin to cover the increasing cost of production”.
Between March 2020 and March this year, the price of chicken rose by 19 per cent, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). By contrast, the cost of beef mince increased by 3 per cent while a beef roasting joint increased by 11 per cent.
According to the National Farmers’ Union (NFU), the cost of rearing a chicken has risen by 50 per cent in the past year alone.
This is largely due to the price of chicken feed — the biggest cost of rearing poultry — which has increased by half since 2020.
Chicken feed is often made up of ingredients such as soya, a by-product of sunflower oil called sunflower meal and wheat. All of these ingredients have risen rapidly in recent months as a result of the war in Ukraine and poor harvests. Ukraine accounts for half of all global sunflower oil trade, and Russia and Ukraine produce about a third of the global supply of wheat.
Murrells, chief executive of The Co-operative Group, who was speaking at The Retail & eCommerce directors’ forum, said customers might switch to other meats or vegan alternatives if the price of chicken continued to soar.
“You could see a shift into pasture [animals], you could see a shift into more plant-based food. Customers will have to be savvy about what they can afford. They’ll buy a chicken, they’ll have it for a roast on a Sunday, but then they’ll use the giblets and whatever to make a soup. Customers will find creative ways of making food last longer.”
He said the challenge for retailers was making sure that there would be “a UK meat industry at the end of the day”. Murrells added: “How do you make sure that suppliers are paid so they can remain and be stable?”
Despite the rises, farmers and manufacturers say chicken is still severely underpriced, with a whole chicken available for less than £3 — the price of a latte — in many supermarkets, including Asda, Aldi, Lidl and Tesco. However, big increases in the cost of chicken feed, energy bills and wages could mark an end to cheap chicken.
Dr Benjamin Coles, an economic geographer at the University of Leicester who has researched the history of chicken production, said: “Will chickens become more expensive than beef? I don’t think that’s a bad speculation.
“We import a lot of beef so there is the cost of transportation. But I can say that the supply chain for a chicken is extraordinarily big and complicated, and it is dependent on a lot — chicken feed including soybeans, which are imported, energy as well as transport costs.”
Chicken was a luxury meat in post-war Britain but mass production in the 1960s saw prices fall. Andrew Godley, a professor of business history at Henley Business School, part of the University of Reading, has written extensively about the “democratisation” of chicken and its transformation into a mass-produced meat.
He said: “In 1950, poultry was a rare luxury in Britain, only 1 per cent of the total meat consumption. It was so special that most families had roast chicken, not a turkey, for their Christmas dinner.”
According to the National Food Survey, poultry was 60p a kilogram in 1956, while beef and veal were 42p. By 1962, poultry had fallen by 16p to 44p a kilogram, while beef and veal had risen to 47p.
This was partly due to the arrival of refrigerated vehicles and better transport, which meant poultry meat could be produced at scale and moved across the country without rotting.
By the 1980s, the rise of mass-produced chicken meant that poultry had become the single most important source of meat, with a quarter of the total share of the market.
Richard Griffiths, chief executive of the British Poultry Council, said: “It is no secret that the cost of production is increasing, particularly in chicken feed, and that cost will have to land somewhere. Chicken remains affordable and accessible to the majority of consumers, with options to suit every wallet.”
James Mottershead, a Shropshire poultry farmer who is the chairman of the NFU’s poultry board, said energy and feed costs for farmers were “skyrocketing”.
He said: “Producers are doing everything they can to continue to produce quality, affordable eggs and poultry meat, which are such staple products in so many people’s diets, but this escalating situation is causing many to consider their future in the industry.
“Ultimately, the price of poultry products must be sustainable for farmers. We are in discussion with retailers about how farm businesses can remain viable and resilient to ensure there are ample amounts of British poultry on shop shelves.”
Egg farmers are also struggling with the rising cost of chicken feed and say that the prices in supermarkets are not rising fast enough to compensate. In March, the average retail price for a dozen eggs was £2.47, according to the ONS.
The British Free Range Egg Producers Association is campaigning for an increase of at least 40p per dozen to be implemented immediately — 80p per dozen for organic eggs — and has written to the eight biggest food retailers to act before businesses go bust.
A recent survey of its members found that 51 per cent of free-range and organic egg farmers were considering leaving the industry.
Last week, Riverford Organic Farmers, a Devon-based produce delivery company, wrote to customers to say it was putting up egg prices for the second time in two months. The cost of six eggs rose from £2.65 to £2.70 in March and will increase to £2.85 from tomorrow.
It apologised to customers but cited the increase in grain prices as a result of the war in Ukraine. “We know it is a difficult time for many people,” it said.
Jen Turnball, 42, and her husband, a fifth-generation dairy farmer, took out a “substantial loan” in 2018 to diversify into egg farming. They now have 32,000 free-range chickens which produce up to 210,000 eggs a week, but their business is making a loss due to rising feed, wage and energy costs.
She said they took out a 15-year loan to start the business, secured against the farm, but are now worried about the future.
The cost of feeding her chickens has risen from £7,000 a week last June to £9,600. She is also affected by rising energy costs because the hen shed uses electricity to run industrial-sized fans for ventilation. While the hens are free-range, they have had to be kept solely indoors because of the risk of bird flu, in accordance with government guidance, since last year. They can resume outdoor life from tomorrow.
Turnball, based in Eden Valley, in Cumbria, said: “I would lose less money shutting the place down and slaughtering healthy birds before their time because I cannot afford to feed them. The supermarkets are putting prices up but they’re not passing it on to the farmer or the producers so local family farmers are suffering.”
If you buy legumes instead, you are saving money and not contributing to unnecessary suffering.
I can see the positive in this, we need to reduce our meat consumption.
It will force people to eat more vegetables and beans/legumes which are cheaper and just as nutritious.
25 quid a kilo for chicken? 🤣 we buy our chicken breast from a local butcher and pay 25 quid for 5 kilos, M&S 🤣 they can do one.
Also the UK has just had its worst round of avian flu ever, all poultry has had to be kept indoors since last November, you might have noticed no free range eggs in the supermarkets? This might have something to do with it as well.
Highly unlikely, seems like another media story that takes a problem and like candyfloss whips it up full of hot air.
We had the petrol panic induced by the media, we have the annual story that there wouldn’t be enough turkeys for christmas and even claims that there might be alcohol shortages in recent memory.
No, how ridiculous. Chicken is cheap to produce because it only takes 30 days of feed to get one to market.
No matter how much anything increases from wages to power to feed, it’ll only take 30 days of those input costs to produce a chicken.
Sure there’s scope for it to increase, but a chicken farms input costs are spread over tens of thousands of birds a month
I was brought up in the 70s when meat was relatively more expensive than it is these days, so my idea of a normal portion of meat is quite conservative. A medium chicken is 8 portions, and you fill up with veg.
I already pay 12 a kilo at my butchers. I thought that was expensive already.
9 comments
The soaring costs of bird feed and production could mean a return to the 1950s where poultry was a luxury meat — and costlier than beef.
Chicken could become as costly as beef because of the spiralling cost of bird feed, according to the chief executive of Co-op supermarkets — the first time that has happened since the 1950s.
Steve Murrells, a former senior manager at Sainsbury’s and Tesco, said: “Chicken could become as expensive as beef. The chicken industry has particular challenges because of the feed costs. The majority of cattle raised in this country are fed grass and it is not required to have high-dense feed. Chicken, which was incredibly cheap and great value for money, is rising quicker than any other protein.”
While a kilogram of beef is usually at least three times the price of chicken, there are already instances where pricing is on a par. In Marks & Spencer, organic free-range chicken breasts and organic British beef rump steak are both £24.15 a kilogram. A pack of two Tesco Finest beef rump steaks are £16.67 a kilogram, while its Finest corn-fed free range chicken fillets are £16.50.
Restaurants and takeaways specialising in chicken such as Nando’s and KFC have increased their prices in recent months. Ten chicken wings with two sides at Nando’s rose from £14.95 to £15.45 last November and to £16 last month.
The 2 Sisters food group, the UK’s largest chicken supplier, said annual food inflation of 15 per cent “will be needed to even begin to cover the increasing cost of production”.
Between March 2020 and March this year, the price of chicken rose by 19 per cent, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). By contrast, the cost of beef mince increased by 3 per cent while a beef roasting joint increased by 11 per cent.
According to the National Farmers’ Union (NFU), the cost of rearing a chicken has risen by 50 per cent in the past year alone.
This is largely due to the price of chicken feed — the biggest cost of rearing poultry — which has increased by half since 2020.
Chicken feed is often made up of ingredients such as soya, a by-product of sunflower oil called sunflower meal and wheat. All of these ingredients have risen rapidly in recent months as a result of the war in Ukraine and poor harvests. Ukraine accounts for half of all global sunflower oil trade, and Russia and Ukraine produce about a third of the global supply of wheat.
Murrells, chief executive of The Co-operative Group, who was speaking at The Retail & eCommerce directors’ forum, said customers might switch to other meats or vegan alternatives if the price of chicken continued to soar.
“You could see a shift into pasture [animals], you could see a shift into more plant-based food. Customers will have to be savvy about what they can afford. They’ll buy a chicken, they’ll have it for a roast on a Sunday, but then they’ll use the giblets and whatever to make a soup. Customers will find creative ways of making food last longer.”
He said the challenge for retailers was making sure that there would be “a UK meat industry at the end of the day”. Murrells added: “How do you make sure that suppliers are paid so they can remain and be stable?”
Despite the rises, farmers and manufacturers say chicken is still severely underpriced, with a whole chicken available for less than £3 — the price of a latte — in many supermarkets, including Asda, Aldi, Lidl and Tesco. However, big increases in the cost of chicken feed, energy bills and wages could mark an end to cheap chicken.
Dr Benjamin Coles, an economic geographer at the University of Leicester who has researched the history of chicken production, said: “Will chickens become more expensive than beef? I don’t think that’s a bad speculation.
“We import a lot of beef so there is the cost of transportation. But I can say that the supply chain for a chicken is extraordinarily big and complicated, and it is dependent on a lot — chicken feed including soybeans, which are imported, energy as well as transport costs.”
Chicken was a luxury meat in post-war Britain but mass production in the 1960s saw prices fall. Andrew Godley, a professor of business history at Henley Business School, part of the University of Reading, has written extensively about the “democratisation” of chicken and its transformation into a mass-produced meat.
He said: “In 1950, poultry was a rare luxury in Britain, only 1 per cent of the total meat consumption. It was so special that most families had roast chicken, not a turkey, for their Christmas dinner.”
According to the National Food Survey, poultry was 60p a kilogram in 1956, while beef and veal were 42p. By 1962, poultry had fallen by 16p to 44p a kilogram, while beef and veal had risen to 47p.
This was partly due to the arrival of refrigerated vehicles and better transport, which meant poultry meat could be produced at scale and moved across the country without rotting.
By the 1980s, the rise of mass-produced chicken meant that poultry had become the single most important source of meat, with a quarter of the total share of the market.
Richard Griffiths, chief executive of the British Poultry Council, said: “It is no secret that the cost of production is increasing, particularly in chicken feed, and that cost will have to land somewhere. Chicken remains affordable and accessible to the majority of consumers, with options to suit every wallet.”
James Mottershead, a Shropshire poultry farmer who is the chairman of the NFU’s poultry board, said energy and feed costs for farmers were “skyrocketing”.
He said: “Producers are doing everything they can to continue to produce quality, affordable eggs and poultry meat, which are such staple products in so many people’s diets, but this escalating situation is causing many to consider their future in the industry.
“Ultimately, the price of poultry products must be sustainable for farmers. We are in discussion with retailers about how farm businesses can remain viable and resilient to ensure there are ample amounts of British poultry on shop shelves.”
Egg farmers are also struggling with the rising cost of chicken feed and say that the prices in supermarkets are not rising fast enough to compensate. In March, the average retail price for a dozen eggs was £2.47, according to the ONS.
The British Free Range Egg Producers Association is campaigning for an increase of at least 40p per dozen to be implemented immediately — 80p per dozen for organic eggs — and has written to the eight biggest food retailers to act before businesses go bust.
A recent survey of its members found that 51 per cent of free-range and organic egg farmers were considering leaving the industry.
Last week, Riverford Organic Farmers, a Devon-based produce delivery company, wrote to customers to say it was putting up egg prices for the second time in two months. The cost of six eggs rose from £2.65 to £2.70 in March and will increase to £2.85 from tomorrow.
It apologised to customers but cited the increase in grain prices as a result of the war in Ukraine. “We know it is a difficult time for many people,” it said.
Jen Turnball, 42, and her husband, a fifth-generation dairy farmer, took out a “substantial loan” in 2018 to diversify into egg farming. They now have 32,000 free-range chickens which produce up to 210,000 eggs a week, but their business is making a loss due to rising feed, wage and energy costs.
She said they took out a 15-year loan to start the business, secured against the farm, but are now worried about the future.
The cost of feeding her chickens has risen from £7,000 a week last June to £9,600. She is also affected by rising energy costs because the hen shed uses electricity to run industrial-sized fans for ventilation. While the hens are free-range, they have had to be kept solely indoors because of the risk of bird flu, in accordance with government guidance, since last year. They can resume outdoor life from tomorrow.
Turnball, based in Eden Valley, in Cumbria, said: “I would lose less money shutting the place down and slaughtering healthy birds before their time because I cannot afford to feed them. The supermarkets are putting prices up but they’re not passing it on to the farmer or the producers so local family farmers are suffering.”
If you buy legumes instead, you are saving money and not contributing to unnecessary suffering.
I can see the positive in this, we need to reduce our meat consumption.
It will force people to eat more vegetables and beans/legumes which are cheaper and just as nutritious.
25 quid a kilo for chicken? 🤣 we buy our chicken breast from a local butcher and pay 25 quid for 5 kilos, M&S 🤣 they can do one.
Also the UK has just had its worst round of avian flu ever, all poultry has had to be kept indoors since last November, you might have noticed no free range eggs in the supermarkets? This might have something to do with it as well.
Highly unlikely, seems like another media story that takes a problem and like candyfloss whips it up full of hot air.
We had the petrol panic induced by the media, we have the annual story that there wouldn’t be enough turkeys for christmas and even claims that there might be alcohol shortages in recent memory.
No, how ridiculous. Chicken is cheap to produce because it only takes 30 days of feed to get one to market.
No matter how much anything increases from wages to power to feed, it’ll only take 30 days of those input costs to produce a chicken.
Sure there’s scope for it to increase, but a chicken farms input costs are spread over tens of thousands of birds a month
I was brought up in the 70s when meat was relatively more expensive than it is these days, so my idea of a normal portion of meat is quite conservative. A medium chicken is 8 portions, and you fill up with veg.
I already pay 12 a kilo at my butchers. I thought that was expensive already.