Plans to send European troops to Ukraine are raising questions about potential gaps in the continent’s security at a time of US support withdrawal and heightened tensions with Russia.
NATO is closely following talks on sending European troops to Ukraine to ensure they do not jeopardise the alliance’s own defence plans, the military alliance’s chief said.
“We have to prevent spreading our resources too thinly,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Wednesday, speaking to the press ahead of another round of talks between members of the self-styled “Coalition of the Willing”.
The coalition, spearheaded by France and the UK, is drafting plans for a post-ceasefire reassurance force in Ukraine that would include putting troops on the ground.
Moscow, which launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, opposes the move and warns that foreign troops would escalate tensions with NATO.
But those talks may force NATO to rethink its defence posture in Europe.
“You always have to look what the impact will be on the NATO plans, the Forward Land Forces, etc.,” Rutte explained.
NATO counts 3.4 million personnel across 32 nations. However, all troops are already committed to existing tasks.
Concretely, this means there are no troops available to deploy to Ukraine without changing NATO or domestic strategies.
“So any unforeseen deployment” at the time of the NATO plans drafting “will have an impact” on the military alliance’s strategising, a NATO official said.
Estonian President Alar Karis said on Wednesday he was “not much worried” that the reassurance force would weaken the alliance’s defence of the eastern flank, but added he would discuss the issue with NATO in the coming days.
Heading this work is US General Alexus G. Grynkewich, commander of US troops in Europe and, as the alliance’s Supreme Allied Commander (SACEUR), responsible for ensuring NATO’s plans unfold as envisioned in the event of attack.
The American elephant in the room
It remains unclear at this stage what form Ukraine’s reassurance force will take, with the US role perhaps the most important unanswered question.
France’s presidential palace said the Europeans are “ready”, but stressed their action is conditioned on the US also providing support.
American involvement in the coalition, in any capacity, would also likely force NATO’s defence plans to change, as they field the alliance’s largest army, two NATO diplomats said.
The much-expected US posture review and withdrawal of troops from Europe are likely expected to affect the plans, the diplomats added.
These questions about the future shape of NATO’s defense strategy come only months after the alliance completed its planning in June, when allies agreed to up their defence spending to 5% of their individual GDP to finance the effort.
(cp, aw)