by croatiaweek
September 3, 2025
in
(Photo: Marija Gasparovic/Zagreb Touristt Board)
The Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ) has released its long-term forecast for the autumn season, indicating that Croatia can expect above-average temperatures in the coming months.
According to DHMZ, which based its outlook largely on data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the September to November period will generally be warmer than the 1991–2020 average across most of the country.
The likelihood of higher-than-normal temperatures is particularly strong in September. October and November are expected to be closer to average, especially in October, although above-average values remain possible.
When it comes to rainfall, DHMZ stresses that long-term precipitation forecasts are more complex and less reliable than temperature projections. Still, calculations suggest that total rainfall this autumn will generally be close to or slightly below average.
September is likely to see a rainfall deficit in many areas, while October carries a smaller chance of below-normal rainfall. November, meanwhile, is expected to bring average or even above-average rainfall in parts of the country.
Despite the overall trend towards warmer conditions, DHMZ warns that this does not rule out cold spells. Periods of colder air intrusions are still possible, as are intervals of significantly warmer weather than the average.
Prema dostupnim prognostičkim materijalima očekujemo topliju jesen uz oborinu uglavnom oko prosjeka.
Više 👉https://t.co/X8FLEJwHBL#SezonskaPrognoza pic.twitter.com/gENDwK5Q4I
— DHMZ (@DHMZ_HR) September 3, 2025
Similarly, fluctuations in rainfall patterns – alternating between drier and wetter spells – cannot be pinpointed with precision in long-term forecasts. The data does not allow for predictions of exactly when dry periods may occur, how long they might last, or when more frequent and intense rainfall events could be expected.
In short, Croatians can look forward to a generally milder autumn, particularly in September, but with the usual variability that the season often brings.