Without much of an issue if their allies stepped up.
Here is the thing: Ukraine, as the defender, wins by not losing Russia, as the invader wins by actually winning and achieving their objectives.
Also, the longer the war continues, the more it favors the democratic societies in terms of innovation, industrial scale, logistics, etc.
Ukraine, therefore, is winning already because they cause massive attrition to Russia and frustrate their war aims for almost 4 years in a row now.
Russia achieved none of their lofty strategic goals.
1) Taking Kyiv fail
2) Taking all of the Donbas fail (Pirgoshin assumed that would work in 2 years after saying it in February 2023)
3) Taking all the 4 annexed territories massive fail
4) Removing the Kyiv government Fail
5) Gaining full control of the sea and air: Fail
6) Getting Ukrainian allies to stop delivering weapons: Fail
7) Protection of their own infrastructure: Fail
8) Getting the EU and US, etc. to lift all sanctions through energy and nuclear blackmail: Fail
So, please this is not about can Ukraine win but rather how hard has Russia failed due to Ukraine and her valor in battle, her courage, her ingenuity and her ability to read their enemy like an open book.
In the end, it comes down to what Sun Tzu said: With your allies, you have a strong foundation, and you stand stable, and you stand weak without allies. As long as at least the EU and the UK and Canada plus Australia stand with Ukraine, a victory in the long term is very likely.
Even if all allies would jump ship as unlikely as that is, Ukraine is a large country, over 600.000 square kilometers, they are an industrialised nation, and they could engage in a very costly insurgency style resistance even without any help.
Compared to that, the Soviet Afghan war would look like a children’s birthday party. Urkaine is currently not engaging Russia with desperation. They try to uphold the rules of war, they try to moderate their actions to keep their allies on board. Without them, nothing stops them from bombing the POS 1 with drones, the Russian tankers, etc. In the end, as Russia refuses to accept that Ukraine even exists, resistance remains the only viable option.
Everyday that Ukraine retains its sovereignty and integrity is a victory day. Every day that the war continues is a Russian defeat. Three day special military operation…. 😂
Russia thinks that if the west stays out they can meat grinder their way to Kyiv. Ukraine thinks it can win if the west helps it hold off the invaders until Russia’s economy collapses. Who wants to snatch stalemate from the jaws of victory?
Win the war? No!
But that only because Ukraine isn’t fighting for a Victory, they fight for survival.
There’s no winners and losers. Will Russia cease hostilities? Maybe eventually but what will be the cause is likely regime collapse. It won’t be a good thing for anybody.
Sure, we may finally be rid of Putin, but a power vacuum, fragmentation of Russia proper will create very tumultuous situations that will affect us all. Nuclear Weapons in the hands of local warlords, China seizing parts of Siberia, the lawlessness coming under civilians by rape, extortion, starvation, freezing to death. Everyone talks about how great it was for Nazi Germany to lose, and while that was a net positive, no one talks about how awful Germany was from 1945-1949.
We could end up with someone much worse. Someone who might be willing to use nuclear weapons for their own purposes or even ideological reasons.
The ideal scenario is that Russian troops give up and go home, and Russia stays isolated and the power vertical is restructured back into a proper democracy. We know that probably isn’t going to happen.
Ukraine could win if they had another 100,000 troops.
Russian lines are thin, not well defended and lack effective defense support. Ukraine, if they could get the resources, could easily punch through.
No Ukraine can’t win and neither can Russia. It’ll be a stalemate that eventually just ends up being border disputes for the next 50 years.
Good conclusion on that video. West was too optimistic that Putin would back down because the conditions related to prosecuting this war were made difficult. Russia has essentially tied its world status to this war and cannot fathom backing down. In other words, they are willing to pay the price and not count the cost and so only total defeat or Russian collapse will make Putin back down. There is a third option, of course, if Putin is removed from office. Then Russia has an off ramp.
Given the current situation and the commitment of its allies, especially those in Europe, Ukraine cannot win the war.
I’m one of those kooky Bible believers. The Bible says Russia will be destroyed. I have a map for the Millennium showing Ukraine … and East Ukraine (no Russia!)
The defender doesn’t need to win, they only need to not lose, and further, to make Russia not want to fight anymore. Lately, they’ve had some good hits on the refineries and in Crimea. Ukraine has also taken some small towns back near pokrovosk. If this keeps up, they will eventually be able to start pushing russia back.
Of course Ukraine can win! This war will not result in some long term stalemate with frozen lines. Russia is only able to sustain the war effort so long as it is constantly on the offensive. Russian desertion will become endemic, and recruitment will be a huge problem as bonuses are reduced (which will be necessary to sustain a long term defensive line).
As soon as Russia goes into a defensive mode it becomes difficult to maintain discipline in the ranks and to keep the war economy running. The Russian public won’t tolerate a war economy if there is no active war, and the whole economy will collapse if military spending is cut.
Russia’s war machine is like a Shark… It keeps moving or it dies. Ukraine just has to be patient, attiring the Russian military in a buzz saw until the machine dies. Then it will be relatively easy for Ukraine to start retaking territory. And once Ukraine starts taking back territory the process will accelerate as morale in the Russian military completely collapses.
15 comments
Would help if Ukraine wasn’t supported by cowards
No
Without much of an issue if their allies stepped up.
Here is the thing: Ukraine, as the defender, wins by not losing Russia, as the invader wins by actually winning and achieving their objectives.
Also, the longer the war continues, the more it favors the democratic societies in terms of innovation, industrial scale, logistics, etc.
Ukraine, therefore, is winning already because they cause massive attrition to Russia and frustrate their war aims for almost 4 years in a row now.
Russia achieved none of their lofty strategic goals.
1) Taking Kyiv fail
2) Taking all of the Donbas fail (Pirgoshin assumed that would work in 2 years after saying it in February 2023)
3) Taking all the 4 annexed territories massive fail
4) Removing the Kyiv government Fail
5) Gaining full control of the sea and air: Fail
6) Getting Ukrainian allies to stop delivering weapons: Fail
7) Protection of their own infrastructure: Fail
8) Getting the EU and US, etc. to lift all sanctions through energy and nuclear blackmail: Fail
So, please this is not about can Ukraine win but rather how hard has Russia failed due to Ukraine and her valor in battle, her courage, her ingenuity and her ability to read their enemy like an open book.
In the end, it comes down to what Sun Tzu said: With your allies, you have a strong foundation, and you stand stable, and you stand weak without allies. As long as at least the EU and the UK and Canada plus Australia stand with Ukraine, a victory in the long term is very likely.
Even if all allies would jump ship as unlikely as that is, Ukraine is a large country, over 600.000 square kilometers, they are an industrialised nation, and they could engage in a very costly insurgency style resistance even without any help.
Compared to that, the Soviet Afghan war would look like a children’s birthday party. Urkaine is currently not engaging Russia with desperation. They try to uphold the rules of war, they try to moderate their actions to keep their allies on board. Without them, nothing stops them from bombing the POS 1 with drones, the Russian tankers, etc. In the end, as Russia refuses to accept that Ukraine even exists, resistance remains the only viable option.
Everyday that Ukraine retains its sovereignty and integrity is a victory day. Every day that the war continues is a Russian defeat. Three day special military operation…. 😂
Russia thinks that if the west stays out they can meat grinder their way to Kyiv. Ukraine thinks it can win if the west helps it hold off the invaders until Russia’s economy collapses. Who wants to snatch stalemate from the jaws of victory?
Win the war? No!
But that only because Ukraine isn’t fighting for a Victory, they fight for survival.
There’s no winners and losers. Will Russia cease hostilities? Maybe eventually but what will be the cause is likely regime collapse. It won’t be a good thing for anybody.
Sure, we may finally be rid of Putin, but a power vacuum, fragmentation of Russia proper will create very tumultuous situations that will affect us all. Nuclear Weapons in the hands of local warlords, China seizing parts of Siberia, the lawlessness coming under civilians by rape, extortion, starvation, freezing to death. Everyone talks about how great it was for Nazi Germany to lose, and while that was a net positive, no one talks about how awful Germany was from 1945-1949.
We could end up with someone much worse. Someone who might be willing to use nuclear weapons for their own purposes or even ideological reasons.
The ideal scenario is that Russian troops give up and go home, and Russia stays isolated and the power vertical is restructured back into a proper democracy. We know that probably isn’t going to happen.
Ukraine could win if they had another 100,000 troops.
Russian lines are thin, not well defended and lack effective defense support. Ukraine, if they could get the resources, could easily punch through.
No Ukraine can’t win and neither can Russia. It’ll be a stalemate that eventually just ends up being border disputes for the next 50 years.
Good conclusion on that video. West was too optimistic that Putin would back down because the conditions related to prosecuting this war were made difficult. Russia has essentially tied its world status to this war and cannot fathom backing down. In other words, they are willing to pay the price and not count the cost and so only total defeat or Russian collapse will make Putin back down. There is a third option, of course, if Putin is removed from office. Then Russia has an off ramp.
Given the current situation and the commitment of its allies, especially those in Europe, Ukraine cannot win the war.
I’m one of those kooky Bible believers. The Bible says Russia will be destroyed. I have a map for the Millennium showing Ukraine … and East Ukraine (no Russia!)
The defender doesn’t need to win, they only need to not lose, and further, to make Russia not want to fight anymore. Lately, they’ve had some good hits on the refineries and in Crimea. Ukraine has also taken some small towns back near pokrovosk. If this keeps up, they will eventually be able to start pushing russia back.
Of course Ukraine can win! This war will not result in some long term stalemate with frozen lines. Russia is only able to sustain the war effort so long as it is constantly on the offensive. Russian desertion will become endemic, and recruitment will be a huge problem as bonuses are reduced (which will be necessary to sustain a long term defensive line).
As soon as Russia goes into a defensive mode it becomes difficult to maintain discipline in the ranks and to keep the war economy running. The Russian public won’t tolerate a war economy if there is no active war, and the whole economy will collapse if military spending is cut.
Russia’s war machine is like a Shark… It keeps moving or it dies. Ukraine just has to be patient, attiring the Russian military in a buzz saw until the machine dies. Then it will be relatively easy for Ukraine to start retaking territory. And once Ukraine starts taking back territory the process will accelerate as morale in the Russian military completely collapses.
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