U.S. crude stocks rose by 622,000 barrels in the week ending August 29, API figures show 

Oil prices dipped on Thursday, continuing a decline of more than 2 percent from the previous session, as investors and traders anticipate a weekend meeting of OPEC+ where producers are expected to deliberate on another increase in output targets. Brent crude decreased by 44 cents, or 0.65 percent, settling at $67.16 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by 45 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $63.52 a barrel. Eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies—collectively known as OPEC+—will evaluate further production increases for October at a meeting on Sunday, Reuters reported.

Anticipated U.S. crude data

OPEC+ had previously agreed to raise output targets by approximately 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, in addition to a 300,000 bpd quota increase for the United Arab Emirates. Over recent months, despite the accelerating production increases, Middle Eastern oil prices have maintained their status as the strongest regional prices globally. This has reinforced the confidence of Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members to enhance output, according to a report from Haitong Securities.

Consequently, Brent futures are likely to settle in the $60-$65 range, which would push WTI into a high-$50 to low-$60 range, potentially challenging the economics of U.S. shale oil supply growth, he noted. Market participants are also anticipating government data on U.S. crude stockpiles, set to be released later on Thursday—one day later than usual due to a U.S. holiday on Monday. U.S. crude stocks reportedly rose by 622,000 barrels in the week ending August 29, as market sources indicated, citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Wednesday.

The API’s estimate for a U.S. build in crude stocks contradicts the predictions of analysts polled by Reuters, who estimated, on average, that U.S. crude inventories had fallen by 2 million barrels.

Read more: Crude oil prices dip down to $68.93 as market awaits OPEC+ meeting this weekend

OPEC+ considers production increases to balance supply

The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on September 7, 2025, holds critical importance as the group navigates complex global oil market dynamics. OPEC+ plans to discuss potentially increasing production further, building upon the 547,000 barrels per day boost implemented in September as part of restoring 2.2 million barrels per day of previously suspended output. This strategic move is aimed at balancing rising non-OPEC supplies from countries like the U.S., Brazil, and Canada while managing risks of global inventory oversupply that could destabilize prices.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts U.S. crude oil production to reach a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, driven by advances in well productivity, though a decline is expected in 2026 due to anticipated lower oil prices. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects average Brent crude prices of about $74.31 per barrel in 2025, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $70.31, highlighting a general trend of price moderation as OPEC+ adjusts output targets and market conditions evolve.

Global oil demand reached a historic high in 2024, with consumption hitting approximately 101 million barrels per day according to the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy. While growth in non-OECD countries, especially India, fuels this surge, China’s demand shows signs of plateauing due to economic shifts and a move towards transportation electrification.