The pace of US oil production growth hinges on the performance of the onshore shale patch, where some of the most prolific plays are showing signs of maturity. But another mature play, the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, is quietly inching toward a new production record, with new project start-ups this year and more in the near-term pipeline. After years of uncertainty under the previous US administration, the arrow is again pointing up for the US Gulf, with dozens of new lease sales planned and a government that now says it is committed to growing production nationwide. The last 18 months have seen numerous Gulf fields start up production. Chevron and Shell, two of the US Gulf’s largest producers, have been especially active, each bringing on a standalone development in addition to some smaller tie-backs. Chevron’s Anchor project, launched last summer, was the world’s first to produce from ultra-high-pressure reservoirs exceeding 20,000 psi (20k) and was followed this year by private independent Beacon Offshore Energy’s Shenandoah, another 20k field. Shell’s Whale project, where Chevron is also a partner, started up this January and reached nameplate capacity of 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day within five months — an “outstanding” achievement, per Shell CEO Wael Sawan. US Gulf production surpassed 1.9 million b/d in June for the first time since October 2023 and is now on track to have its highest annual average since its 2019 peak. Energy Intelligence reckons the Gulf can sustain that rate through 2026. Higher Gulf output drove overall US production to a new monthly record in June of 13.58 million b/d.
