A pivotal meeting of the eight Opec-plus members is set for Sep. 7, when the group will determine its next steps for the first time since completing an accelerated unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts. Members will decide whether current market conditions justify further production increases via the unwinding of a second tranche of voluntary cuts or if it’s better to pause to assess the state of global markets now that the summer demand peak has passed. The decision comes amid third-party forecasts of an oversupplied market that has yet to feel the full effect of the first unwound tranche of cuts — but one that Opec reckons still has plenty of demand growth potential. Questions around market share and Chinese demand will doubtless factor in. Sources familiar with Opec-plus’ thinking are split on what the group will decide. Some observers believe a pause makes the most sense after Opec-plus completed a 2.5 million b/d production increase this month, which includes a 300,000 b/d baseline increase for the United Arab Emirates — both one year ahead of the original schedule. Others say group members, including heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are eager to open the taps given the market’s continued ability to absorb additional supplies in recent months and could push to promptly start unwinding another tranche of 1.66 million b/d of cuts that started in May 2023 (not including Gabon’s 8,000 b/d that was part of the original cut). Notably, Opec-plus hasn’t yet fully added 2.5 million b/d of fresh supply to markets, given compensation cuts that reflect past overproduction. Between March and September 2025, Opec-plus will have ramped up actual crude output by 1.8 million b/d, according to Energy Intelligence’s calculations, or 700,000 b/d less than the original plan. The lion’s share, or 1.38 million b/d, is expected from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. All told, Opec-plus crude output — not including four members without required production levels (quotas) — will amount to 35.1 million b/d this year, or 1.1 million b/d more than in 2024, Energy Intelligence data shows. Still, resilient demand, Chinese inventory builds and geopolitical risk have kept a floor under prices: In the six months since Opec-plus announced the accelerated output plan, the price of Brent fell by only $1.50 to $67.60 per barrel.
