Indonesia’s leadership has tied its political fortunes to what it hopes will be a revival in national oil production after years of declining output. President Prabowo Subianto has vowed to drastically cut costly fuel imports by 2029 while targeting a near doubling of crude production from current levels by then. He has made it both an economic and energy security priority to reduce dependence on foreign barrels. But some question whether Indonesia’s mature geology will be able to deliver the desired boom in output without substantial new investment, and a forecast surge in domestic demand makes it unlikely that the former Opec member will start exporting crude again anytime soon. Indonesia is the world’s fourth-most populous country, with a youthful population some 280 million strong that is driving higher oil consumption. The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes Indonesia’s total oil demand will rise by 470,000 barrels per day by 2030 from just under 1.9 million b/d in 2024. That would mark the second-fastest growth rate in the world over that time behind only India, according to the IEA. Indonesia imported about 1.1 million b/d in 2024 at a cost of roughly $30 billion, of which 350,000 b/d was crude. Domestic crude output peaked in 1977 at just shy of 1.7 million b/d but slipped below 1 million b/d by 2004. It fell to just 580,000 b/d last year, Energy Intelligence data shows, but rose above 608,000 b/d in July 2025, according to government data, marking the first time since 2008 that volumes exceeded state budget targets. Jakarta is targeting 605,000 b/d in 2025, with a long-standing goal of getting back to 1 million b/d of crude output by 2030; it hopes to hit 900,000 b/d by 2029.
