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Our betting expert expects Italy to get their qualification campaign back on track with a convincing victory against Estonia. 

Best bets for Italy vs Estonia1x2 – Italy 1.07 on StakeAnytime goalscorer – Mateo Retegui 1.64 on StakeWinning margin – Italy to win by two goals 4.20 on Stake

We expect a 2-0 win for Italy. 

Our analysis: Form of both teams 

It’s almost unbelievable that Italy haven’t featured at the finals of the World Cup since 2014. However, after two games in their Group I qualifiers, they have already fallen behind and are in danger of missing out on next year’s tournament. 

The Azzurri will start a new chapter under the guidance of legendary coach Genarro Gattuso. Thankfully for him, Luciano Spalletti’s last match delivered three points, so they’re currently nine points behind leaders Norway but with two remaining games.

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This means that Gattuso’s charges must win on Saturday to stay close to the group leaders and keep their hopes of qualifying for the World Cup alive. Facing a side that’s 112 places below them in the latest rankings is likely the best way to start. 

Estonia’s chances of reaching the finals are almost gone, as they have lost three of their four qualifiers (75%). Jürgen Henn’s charges also had a poor performance in the Nations League. This doesn’t inspire confidence ahead of their trip to Italy for their fifth qualifier. 

Probable lineups for Italy vs Estonia 

Italy expected lineup: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Mancini; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Barella, Tonali, Dimarco; Raspadori, Retegui 

Estonia expected lineup: Hein; Schjonning-Larsen, Paskotsi, Kuusk, Saliste; Palumets, Shein; Kristal, Kait, Sinyavskiy; Sappinen

Italy favourites to make it eight

Italy’s win against Moldova the last time out came at the right time, as it ended a four-game winless streak. While three of those defeats were against teams that are in the top ten in the world, they’ve performed better against sides ranked below 100. 

The Italians have won each of their last dozen matches against such opponents since 2019, so a victory here is very likely.

This impressive record against lower-ranked nations is reflected across online betting sites, where Italy’s odds are understandably short for this fixture.

Furthermore, Estonia have lost their last nine games with teams inside the top 30 of the world rankings. 

Additionally, the hosts have won all of the last seven head-to-heads and have prevented Estonia from scoring in five. The Blue Shirts have blanked in three of their last five outings, so they are unlikely to score on Saturday.

Italy vs Estonia Betting Tip 1: 1×2 – Italy 1.07 on BetwayMost prolific striker in Italy

Italy’s current most prolific attacker is Mateo Retegui. The 26-year-old recently moved from Serie A to the Saudi Pro League, but his goal-scoring ability remains the same. He made his debut just last week and scored a brace in a 3-1 win for his new side, 

Al-Qadsiah.

It’s worth noting that nobody scored more than Retegui in Serie A last term. Therefore, the Golden Boot winner is the most lethal striker for the Azzurri at the moment. Four of his six goals for the national team have come before halftime, so he’ll be eager to score early against Estonia. 

Italy vs Estonia Betting Tip 2: Anytime goalscorer – Mateo Retegui 1.64 on BetwayA repeat of history

Italy’s only win in World Cup Qualifiers this year was by a two-goal margin against Moldova. While they are expected to dominate Estonia this weekend, the team may need time to get used to Gattuso’s tactics. 

As a result, they may put on a patchy performance, but will still dominate the visitors. Six of Italy’s seven head-to-head wins have been by two goals, which means history could repeat itself this Saturday. 

Italy vs Estonia Betting Tip 3: Winning margin – Italy to win by two goals 4.20 on Betway