California Governor Gavin Newsom edged out President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance in a new hypothetical poll of the 2028 presidential race.
Kiersten Pels, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee (RNC), responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.
“Gavin Newsom’s extreme, failed agenda has turned California into a haven for violent crime and high taxes, causing citizens to flee the state in droves. If Democrats think exporting California’s chaos to the rest of the country is their path forward, they’re even more out of touch than we thought,” Pels said.
Newsweek also reached out to Newsom’s office for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Newsom has emerged as a favorite of many Democrats to become the party’s 2028 presidential nominee in recent polls. He has not formally announced a run but has taken actions like traveling to the early-voting primary state South Carolina that have fueled speculation he could be gearing up for a potential run. He has cast himself as a leading foil to Trump, taking on high-profile battles over redistricting and the president’s efforts to send federal troops into Los Angeles to quell protests over his immigration policies.
Trump is ineligible to run for president again come next election, as the U.S. Constitution prohibits presidents from serving more than two terms. Still, some Republicans have pushed the idea that he could seek another term—though it would be legally dubious—and he has been included in some potential polls of the 2028 election.
Trump floated the idea of running for a third term, sometimes seemingly in jest, but told Time magazine in April 2024 he “wouldn’t be in favor” of repealing the 22nd Amendment, which states that “no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice.”
What To Know
The new poll from Leger found Newsom leading Trump and Vance, as well as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has also been floated as a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
In a match-up against Trump, Newsom led by four points (48 to 44 percent). He led Vance by a smaller single-point margin (47 to 46 percent) and Rubio by five points (49 to 44 percent).
Democrats would also lead the generic ballot by about two points (48 to 46 percent) among decided voters in the 2028 presidential election, the poll found.
Andrew Enns, an executive vice president at Leger, told Newsweek on Friday morning that the poll suggests Newsom has “managed to get some good name recognition and connect in a positive manner” with Democrats and independent voters.
“It will be interesting to see with these numbers if we see Newsom being a bit more proactive in the midterm elections outside of California,” he said. “These numbers give a little bit of a sense that it would be interesting if he did engage in that midterm election and what impact he might have on the eventual result.”
He noted that voters may view Vance as a bit less “outspoken” than Trump, which could be one reason why his support is a bit stronger than the incumbent president. His presence with Trump in the media also helps him with Republican voters, Enns added.
In the hypothetical GOP primary, assuming Trump does not run, Vance would have the advantage among Republicans, 50 percent of whom said they would support him. Nine percent would back Rubio, while 8 percent said they would vote for Texas Senator Ted Cruz.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris led the hypothetical Democratic primary with 30 percent support, while Newsom followed with 24 percent. Ten percent said they would vote for Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York Democrat, and 8 percent backed former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
The poll surveyed 1,014 adults from August 29 to August 31 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks during a news conference in Sacramento on August 21.
California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks during a news conference in Sacramento on August 21.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Presidential Race 2028: What Other Polls Say About Gavin Newsom
A recent YouGov/Yahoo poll similarly showed Newsom up against Trump and Vance—he led both Republicans by eight points (49 to 41 percent). It surveyed 1,690 adults from August 29 to September 2 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Meanwhile, an Emerson College poll showed Vance with a narrow lead over Newsom—44.4 percent to 43.5 percent. It surveyed 1,000 registered voters from August 25 to August 26 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
California Governor Gavin Newsom told The Wall Street Journal in June: “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.”
President Donald Trump told reporters in June: “He’s done a terrible job. I like Gavin Newsom. He’s a nice guy, but he’s grossly incompetent, everybody knows.”
CNN’s Harry Enten wrote on X on August 22: “Big signal for Newsom: A rising tide of support from the voters who know him best. 75 percent of CA Dems are excited for him to run for prez vs. just 35 percent who wanted him to run in 2023. He beats Harris! Every nominee has won their home state in the primary & led early polls in them.”
What Happens Next?
Candidates typically make campaign announcements after the midterms, which are scheduled to take place in November 2026. Newsom’s second term as governor ends at the start of 2027, as he is not eligible to run for reelection due to term limits.