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There’s plenty of context to today’s encounter.
In The Rugby Championship each team has played two, won one lost one, with only bonus points separating the four combatants.
On the World Rugby rankings, Australia (6th place) lead Argentina (7th place) by just 1.45 points.
This could prove significant at the 2027 World Cup. With the tournament expanding to 24 teams for the first time, the group phase will feature six pools of four nations. The six top-ranked sides in the world will be separated at this stage of the draw, and if early matches go to form, they should also avoid each other in the first knockout stage (round of 16). The ranking cut-off point for this huge advantage is December 2025.
Rankings points are traded during each Test. These are based on the match result, the relative strength of each team, the margin of victory, and there is an allowance for home advantage. In short, this means underdog victories are worth their weight in gold, while upsets at home can prove very costly.
For example, the Wallabies gained a maximum 3.0 ranking points for their 15+ point victory away to the much higher-ranked Springboks recently, but lost only 0.23 for the narrow defeat that followed.
This formula means Australia are effectively defending ranking points over the next fortnight, while Argentina have a couple of free hits.
Today’s Test could have major implications on the 2027 Rugby World Cup on Australian soil. Photograph: Brendon Thorne/World Rugby/Getty ImagesSharePreamble
Jonathan Howcroft
Hello everybody and welcome to live coverage of Australia v Argentina in round three of the 2025 Rugby Championship. Kick-off at North Queensland Stadium in Townsville is 2:30pm (AEST).
The Wallabies are back – literally, and, it would appear, metaphorically. Following a historic trip to South Africa, Australia welcome Argentina for a double-header with expectations higher than at any point in almost a decade.
The 22-38 triumph over the World Cup holders at Ellis Park three weeks ago follows on from a deserved final Test victory over the British and Irish Lions, concluding a three-match series that contained plenty of reasons to be cheerful.
Joe Schmidt’s work behind the scenes is clearly paying off, while access to the best Australians playing overseas has elevated a willing mob into one sprinkled with stardust. As Daniel Gallan wrote following the comeback over the Springboks: “Maybe a team with a solid set-piece, a totem in the lineout, berserkers at the breakdown, ballers in the midfield and dazzlers in the backfield are simply a formidable outfit that deserve more respect than they’ve been shown.”
The challenge now is to embrace that expectation and deliver as favourites, an unfamiliar sensation after five consecutive matches grinding as underdogs.
Doing so without Will Skelton increases the degree of difficulty. The man mountain has been key to Australia’s resurgence but with his bulk back in La Rochelle the Wallaby pack is less potent. And there remains the challenge of establishing a long-term partnership in the halves. 35-year-old Nic White retains the No 9 jersey despite announcing his international retirement in August, and he will partner 22-year-old Tom Lynagh in Townsville, after spending the South African tour alongside fellow veteran James O’Connor.
White and Lynagh will have their hands full against an Argentina side relishing their own historic success after they defeated New Zealand on home soil for the first time a fortnight ago.
Los Pumas boast a fearsome experienced pack, and the Wallabies will be all too aware of the try-scoring potential outside after Argentina ran in nine this time last year when the fixture was played in Santa Fe.
Australia appear to have come on in leaps and bounds since that record defeat. The next couple of hours will begin to reveal if there is substance behind that assumption, or whether Australian rugby is again tormented by another false dawn.
If you want to get in touch this afternoon, the address is jonathan.howcroft.casual@theguardian.com.
Australia’s Wallabies have shown grit as underdogs, but can they rise to the occasion as favourites? Photograph: Esa Alexander/ReutersShare