The role of Turkey as a key buyer of Ukrainian corn in the 2025/26 season may come under pressure. This was reported by ASAP Agri analysts.

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Market participants believe that the recovery of corn harvest in Russia in 2025 after last year’s losses may allow Russia to expand its market share in Turkey, reducing Ukraine’s presence.

So far, Turkey’s demand for Ukrainian corn remains active. Ideas of buyers for handysize shipments with loading in November-December are voiced at the level of $230-232/ton CIF Marmara, which is higher than $225/ton at the beginning of August. The increase is explained by the rise in domestic corn prices in Turkey.

However, buyers remain cautious. They expect prices for later shipment periods to decrease when the delayed but significant new harvest from Ukraine enters the market. Ukrainian traders are holding offers at $234-236/ton CIF Marmara for November-December shipments, but trading activity is limited due to the lack of a new import quota with reduced or zero duties.

In addition, analysts emphasize that Turkey’s overall demand for corn imports is forecast to be significantly lower in the 2025/26 MY, which may reduce purchases from Ukraine compared to this season. According to USDA estimates in the August report, imports will amount to 3.3 million tons compared to 5.7 million tons in 2024/25, while domestic production is forecasted at 7.9 million tons (compared to 7.1 million tons the previous year). Local estimates are even more optimistic.

“In Central Anatolia, in the Konya region, harvesting has not yet begun – this is the largest production region. We expect only minor losses. My production estimate remains at 8.2 million tons, with imports around 3 million tons,” said Koray Tyuysuzoglu, CEO of Erser Group.

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Теги: agricultural sector, Anatolia region, corn harvest, corn imports, Corn Market, Corn prices, Domestic production, Erser Group, export projections, harvest forecast, import quota, Konya, market analysis, market share, Russia, supply and demand, Trading activity, Turkey, Ukrainian corn, USDA Estimates