Although long derided for his aloof manner and wooden communication style, Jonas Gahr Store has portrayed himself as a steady pair of hands, promising safety, stability and economic responsibility for energy-rich Norway.
The Labour prime minister is facing a serious challenge in Monday’s election, however, from Sylvi Listhaug, a right-wing firebrand with a history of provocative comments and stunts that have included diving into the Mediterranean to “experience” the plight of refugees.
The result appears too close to call after Store staged a remarkable comeback in recent months that has seen support for Labour surge in the polls from a low of 17 per cent last Christmas to 27 per cent, putting it six points ahead of Listhaug’s Progress party. The Conservatives, her likely ally, are on 15 per cent.
“The fundamental difference between us and Labour is simple,” Listhaug said last week. “We trust people. Labour believes politicians and bureaucrats know best. We want to give individuals and families more freedom to make their own decisions.”
Sylvi Listhaug, second left, holds the floor, during a pre-election debate last Tuesday
STIAN LYSBERG SOLUM/NTB/REUTERS
Listhaug also deplored what she called the “heavy burden” placed on entrepreneurs and business owners, accusing Store of being out of touch. Her party wants to cut taxes, which are among the highest in Europe and include one on wealth. A decision by Labour after coming to power in 2021 to raise the top rate of wealth tax from 0.85 per cent to 1.1 per cent, as well as increasing the tax on dividends, has been blamed for an exodus of as many as 50 of the country’s richest citizens, many of them to Switzerland.
“Labour wants to take more and more of people’s hard-earned money and use it for their own political projects,” Listhaug added. “Ordinary people are tired of this. They want to keep more of their own money and decide for themselves how to use it. I think that Jonas Gahr Store is out of touch. He talks about ordinary people but he doesn’t truly seem to understand their struggles with rising prices.”
Listhaug was elected leader of the Progress Party in May 2021
CARL COURT/GETTY IMAGES
Relations with the European Union, of which Norway is not a member, are also an important dividing line between the two rivals. Norway is part of the European Economic Area, which allows freedom of movement, but negotiates customs and trade relations with Brussels — which has become harder in recent years.
“Brexit has made everything a bit more difficult, the EU is no longer so fond of cherry-picking,” said Kjetil Alstadheim, political editor of Aftenposten, a leading Norwegian broadsheet.
Tariffs imposed by President Trump have hit Norway harder than the EU, prompting senior members not just of Labour but also of the Conservatives to argue it is increasingly harmful for their country to remain outside the EU.
By contrast, Progress wants as little to do with Brussels as possible. Listhaug has called for Norway to stop selling its copious supply of cheap energy into the European market even though it earns Norway billions of pounds.
This could especially impact Britain, which is heavily dependent on Norwegian energy, pushing up prices for consumers. Labour is under pressure, too, from its potential coalition partners such as the Greens, to slow down the transfer of energy abroad.
• Norway is hooked on cheap energy — withdrawals could topple the PM
Tensions over the EU came to a head at the end of January when Store’s junior coalition partner, the Centre party, walked out of the government in a row over the adoption of the European Union’s clean energy package, a collection of directives and regulations to promote energy efficiency and production of renewable power.
Labour argued for the adoption of at least some of the directives in the name of national security, though this did not convince the Centre party, which draws much of its support from farmers, and is adamant that the new rules would weaken national sovereignty and drive up energy prices.
Store managed to push the measure through with the help of other smaller parties, but said recently that if returned to power, he will not implement the remaining five parts of the package.
Whoever wins the election, a vote on EU membership is unlikely in the next few years. Norway has had two referendums on joining the bloc — in 1972 and in 1994 — and on both occasions has voted to stay out.
Recent studies show that although a majority of Norwegians say they want more collaboration with the EU, they are anxious about becoming a fully fledged member — making both Labour and the Conservatives reluctant to push for a vote in the near future.
“People’s general attitudes toward European collaboration have moved in a positive direction,” said Johannes Bergh, a prominent political scientist. “But there’s still a solid ‘no’ vote on the EU question.”
Store, a multimillionaire who inherited wealth from the sale in the 1970s of Jotul, his family’s stove and fireplace company, has ascended smoothly through the ranks of the Labour party, becoming its leader in 2014 in place of Jens Stoltenberg, who became Nato general-secretary (and in February returned to Norwegian politics as Store’s finance minister).
By contrast Listhaug’s career has been marked by controversy since her first stint in frontline Norwegian politics in 2013, when Progress became a junior partner in a government led by the Conservatives, at the time the dominant force on the right.
Promoted in 2015, at the height of the refugee crisis, to a new immigration and integration post, she railed against the “tyranny of goodness” gripping Norwegian society.
It was then that she made political waves with her dip in the Mediterranean, floating for a few minutes off the coast of the island of Lesbos in a bright orange rescue suit before being hauled back on board a waiting Norwegian rescue boat.
Listhaug was mocked for jumping into the Mediterranean off the coast of Lesbos and being “rescued” when she was the immigration minister in 2016
PETER HENRY VON KOSS/NTB SCANPIX/TORE MEEK/REUTERS
The stunt was widely ridiculed for being insensitive and ridiculous and mocked on social media, but Listhaug stood by her action. “The crew on the rescue boat asked me if I wanted to see how they work and be rescued from the sea, and I gladly did so,” she said. “ It was an experience to see how our Norwegian heroes on board carry out their job of saving human lives. I am proud of their efforts.”
Controversy continued to dog her during subsequent roles in government: as justice minister in 2018 she was obliged to apologise and resign from her post after claiming on Facebook the rival Labour party “cares more about the rights of terrorists than national security”.
Appointed public health minister the next year, she declared: “People should be allowed to smoke, drink and eat as much red meat as they want. The authorities may like to inform, but people know pretty much what is healthy and what is not healthy, I think.” A snatched photograph of her smoking a cigarette while sipping a bottle of Pepsi went around the world.
STIAN LYSBERG SOLUM/NTB SCANPIX/AP
Listhaug was elected Progress’s leader in May 2021, but four months later presided over the party’s worst result this century in the election that brought Store to power. Progress won just 11.7 per cent of the popular vote, compared with 26.3 per cent for Labour.
Support for Progress subsequently surged to as high as 25 per cent last year, for a few months making it the country’s most popular party. Labour’s ratings plunged, hitting their nadir at the end of January when the Centre party walked out.
During the months since, though, Store has been transformed, campaigning under the slogan of “security for the future” and portraying himself as a statesman able to lead Norway through uncertain times.
Store met President Zelensky last month
GENYA SAVILOV/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
Alstadheim said Progress had been effective at wooing the “discontented electorate” of Norway, with their “anti-woke” policies proving particularly appealing to young male voters, who found the Conservatives too similar to Labour. Yet this would not necessarily make her Norway’s next leader, even if the right parties together won a majority.
“Her supporters are comfortable with her becoming prime minister,” Alstadheim added. “But many Conservative voters would rather be led by Store than Listhaug. It’s hard for her to lead from the centre of a coalition, when Progress is on the fringe.”