India’s crude oil imports from Russia have remained stable, with August 2025 figures reflecting cargoes booked well before recent geopolitical tensions escalated. Despite pressure from the US, government officials, analysts, and traders all indicate that future supplies from Russia will continue.

India’s stance is clear; economics and energy security are the top priorities. A top government official emphasized that the country will continue to purchase crude that is economically viable.

“India will continue to buy crude that meets economics. That apart, it’s also about energy security and strategic autonomy in a multi-polar and volatile world. There are ample indications to this effect. This is a critical time in geopolitics and we hope that eventually a rational view on priorities will prevail,” the official said.

In a volatile world, this approach ensures strategic autonomy. This sentiment is echoed by analysts who points out that India is unlikely to abruptly pivot away from Russian crude because Russian barrels are the cheapest option available.

For Indian refiners, the math is simple. Without a formal directive from the government, they are unwilling to pass up even a small discount. With Russian crude currently offering a discount of over $3 a barrel, and signals of a potential 5 per cent discount on future cargoes, it remains the most commercially viable choice.

Global real-time data and analytics provides Kpler data support this, showing that while India’s intake of Russian crude has been steady, this is due to contract timing. August and early September arrivals reflect agreements made in July. Any real impact from tariffs or shipping issues won’t be seen until late September onwards.

According to Kpler data, Russian cargoes stood at roughly 1.67 mb/d (provisionally) in August 2025, higher by almost 6 per cent M-o-M, but fell 4 per cent Y-o-Y. 

India imported around 1.769 mb/d Russian crude in 2024 on an average. During January to August, 2025, it imported roughly 1.768 mb/d, Kpler data shows. 

August crude procurement is generally on the lower side as domestic consumption is low due to rains. Planned refinery maintenance season also kicks around this time.  

The decline in crude oil imports is also due to lower cargoes at Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery for the second consecutive month in August, said a trade source. Besides, Russia has more crude capacity to export due to seasonal maintenance and drone attacks, he added. 

“India is unlikely to abruptly pivot away from Russian crude. However, refiners are expected to pursue greater diversification to balance affordability with energy security,” stressed Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling. 

Russian roulette  

Ritolia said deals are typically fixed 6–8 weeks in advance, meaning August and early September arrivals reflect July agreements. Real impact of tariffs, payment hurdles or shipping frictions will appear late September onwards. 

While cargo ships from Russia (Baltic/ Black Sea ports) roughly take 30-40 days to reach India, Middle Eastern supplies typically arrive in a week’s time. Shipments from the US take anywhere between 45-55 days with a similar timeline for South America. Nigerian crude can take 30-45 days to reach India.  

Russian barrels remain the cheapest option in the basket, and without a formal directive from New Delhi, refiners are unlikely to leave even a $1 discount on the table. For now, it is business as usual—though with greater caution and an eye on diversification as energy security takes center stage, he explained.  

A refinery official said Russia has almost officially signalled that future cargoes to India will get a 5 per cent discount.  

Currently, discount is over $3 a barrel. Geopolitics does matter, but in the end it’s more about “commercial availability and viability”. Urals discount has risen (against Brent) since the second week of August, he added. 

Also, more crude processing will happen from the second fortnight this month in preparation for the heightened festival, mining, industrial and agriculture activity in October-December 2025, the official pointed out. 

US cargoes 

India has also increased its crude oil purchases from the US during 2025. American cargoes to India during 9M 2025 averaged at around 282,000 b/d, Kpler data shows. 

America’s crude oil market share, which stood at 6.92 per cent in April 2025 (of total Indian imports), fell to 5.49 per cent a month later. However, its share rose again to 6.41 per cent and a record 7.72 per cent (barring 2021) in June and July, respectively. In August, the share stood at a little over 5 per cent.  

A Goldman Sachs report said that the US accounted for around 4 per cent of India’s crude oil imports (volume) in FY25, from around 3 per cent in FY24. However, in April and May 2025, It accounted for 8 per cent (on average). 

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Published on September 7, 2025