Long-range Ukrainian drone attacks have knocked out 20 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity in the month of August, according to the Economist. The situation is proving to be very challenging as the supply disruption caused by Ukrainian airstrikes has coincided with the peak seasonal demand due to summer travel and the upcoming harvesting season.
Gasoline prices have reached record highs in Russia amid mounting reports of fuel shortages. Russian social media has been inundated with videos depicting long lines of cars and transport trucks at gas stations all over Russia and in occupied areas of Ukraine.
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Of course, news of Russia’s progressing fuel shortages has been welcomed by everyone in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak noted the irony of Russia having done everything possible to deprive Ukraine of fuel earlier in the war, only to now suddenly face their own shortages. On Aug. 20, 2205, Yermak posted on his X account, “That’s what happens when you attack Ukrainians.”
Since Kyiv’s American and European allies seem reluctant to impose stricter sanctions against Russia’s energy sector, the Ukrainians have taken matters into their own hands.
Ukraine’s developing bombing campaign is not a simple act of vengeance. Their recent strategy of striking Russia’s oil industry infrastructure is meant to directly impact Vladimir Putin’s war economy and subvert his ability to continue financing the invasion of Ukraine. Since Kyiv’s American and European allies seem reluctant to impose stricter sanctions against Russia’s energy sector, the Ukrainians have taken matters into their own hands, utilizing their current wave of drone attacks as their own highly effective form of direct sanctions. Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries since the start of August are part of a broader strategy. Ukraine has also been bombing several military production facilities inside Russia, along with multiple fuel trains and logistics hubs in locations near the war’s frontlines. In mid-August, Ukrainian drones destroyed the pumping station for the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s Rumbov region, closing down this key vital element of the Kremlin’s energy infrastructure, which carries Russian oil to European markets.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Air Defenses Give Bayraktar TB-2 Drones New Lease of Life
Successful attacks on Russian air defenses in southern Ukraine and Crimea have created gaps in coverage that the TB-2, once considered obsolete, has been able to exploit.
Ukraine’s leaders believe in their growing long-range missile strike capabilities as an important factor in attempts to push Russia into ending its invasion and negotiating an end to the conflict. During the onset of the unprovoked, full-scale invasion, Ukraine was quite limited in the number of drones capable of reaching targets within Russia. In the past three and a half years, Kyiv’s long-range arsenal has grown significantly, allowing launches of increasingly determined air attacks.
The most recent addition to Ukraine’s arsenal is a home-grown long-range cruise missile named the Flamingo. This recently revealed missile reportedly has a range of over 3,000 kilometers and holds a huge warhead that does not compare to anything Ukraine’s long-range drones are presently capable of delivering. President Zelensky has substantiated the missile’s successful testing and the Flamingo is set to be mass produced before the end of the current year.
It is not surprising that Ukraine has the know-how to establish domestic cruise missile production. The country had previously played a major role in the USSR’s missile program when the Ukrainian city of Dnipro was referred to informally during the Cold War as “Rocket City.”
The renewal of this custom gives Kyiv a possible secret weapon in negotiations with Moscow. Despite its current limited missile and drone proficiencies, Ukraine is proving itself competent of administering major damage on Russia’s economically crucial energy sector. Should Kyiv attain its goal of mass produced long-range cruise missiles, there could be catastrophic future consequences for Russia’s refineries, pipelines and ports.
The Kremlin simply does not have enough air defense systems to protect thousands of potential military and energy targets spread throughout eleven different time zones.
Ukraine’s intensifying deep strikes happen at a time when the superiority of drones is making frontline breakthroughs increasingly difficult to achieve. The Russian army’s continuing grind forward in eastern Ukraine is advancing at a very slow pace, managing to capture less than one percent of additional Ukrainian territory in the last three years while losing hundreds of thousands of soldiers.
Experts say the current technological realities of the war favor Ukraine. This does not leave a clear path to a conclusive Russian military victory in Ukraine. Kyiv’s political leaders are hoping that if Putin is challenged with a bloody impasse in Ukraine and the likelihood of pressing attacks inside Russia, he may have to reconsider his present uncompromising position and pursue a peaceful resolution to end his invasion.
Russia’s vast size has always been deemed one of its main assets. This great expanse is now exploited by Ukraine’s launching surges of airstrikes across the country, transforming it into Russia’s biggest liability. The Kremlin simply does not have enough air defense systems to protect thousands of potential military and energy targets spread throughout eleven different time zones. The only uncertainty is if Ukraine can produce missiles and drones in adequate quantities to destroy Putin’s war machine. On the basis of the current trajectory, the Kremlin has grounds to be concerned.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
