Ministerstwo obrony Holandii
Photo. Holenderskie F-35 nad Polską
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Repeated drone incursions into Polish airspace show that Russia and Belarus are testing NATO and EU defenses. These incidents are not isolated but part of a wider hybrid warfare strategy that combines military pressure, information operations, and electronic warfare. The challenge for the Alliance is how to respond effectively without escalating into open conflict.
In recent nights, Polish airspace has been violated twice by unmanned aerial vehicles. Small, cheap, and difficult to detect, drones are ideal tools for hybrid warfare. Moscow and Minsk use them not to strike directly but to probe reactions, overload defense systems, and accustom societies to constant pressure. Each new violation risks becoming „the new normal” on NATO’s eastern border.
These incursions are not random. They are often synchronized with Russian missile barrages against Ukraine, creating a double layer of military and psychological impact. By observing how quickly Poland and NATO allies respond, and how coherent the communication between government and armed forces is, Moscow draws conclusions about the Alliance’s readiness. If the reaction is slow or chaotic, the pressure seems to work. If NATO fighters, such as Dutch F-35s currently stationed in Poland, are deployed, the costs of escalation for Russia increase.
The technical challenge is formidable. Small, low-flying drones evade traditional radars and are too cheap to be countered with expensive missiles like Patriot or CAMM-ER. A saturation scenario—dozens of drones attacking simultaneously—could overload command systems and force difficult prioritization between protecting critical infrastructure and intercepting minor threats. This is why layered defense, from Pilica+ and Piorun to Patriot, must be complemented with cheaper effectors such as programmable ammunition for AG-35 cannons and expanded radar coverage in the east.
Electronic warfare adds another layer of threat. Russia has repeatedly jammed GPS signals in the Baltic region, disrupting civil aviation and even affecting the landing of EU officials. Such actions demonstrate that hybrid aggression extends far beyond military targets and can disrupt daily life. The objective is not only to test defenses but also to sow uncertainty and undermine trust in institutions.
NATO and the EU cannot eliminate these risks entirely, but they can mitigate their effects. Faster decision-making chains, permanent anti-drone zones over critical infrastructure, intensified allied patrols, and investments in jamming systems are crucial. Ultimately, hybrid warfare is about perception as much as capability. Clear communication, close cooperation with allies, and sustained modernization of defense systems are key to ensuring that Russian provocations remain controlled incidents—not the new status quo.