Analysts See Decline in U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

By Anthony Harrup

U.S. crude oil inventories likely declined last week along with stocks of gasoline and distillate fuels as refineries slowed their pace of capacity use, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.

Commercial crude stocks are seen falling by one million barrels to 419.7 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 5, according to the average estimate of eight analysts and traders. Five expect a stock draw and three predict a build, with estimates ranging from a decline of 4.2 million barrels to an increase of 1.4 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories are expected to be down by 500,000 barrels at 218 million barrels in an eighth consecutive weekly decline. Forecasts range from a 1.6 million barrel increase to a 3 million barrel drop.

Stocks of distillate fuels, mostly diesel, are seen falling by 400,000 barrels to 115.5 million barrels, with estimates ranging from a 2.2 million barrel build to a 3 million barrel withdrawal.

Refinery capacity use likely fell by 0.9 of a percentage point to 93.4%. Forecasts range from a 0.4 percentage point decline to a 2 percentage point decline. Two analysts didn’t forecast refinery runs.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled for release the inventory data on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital 1.4 -2.6 -1.9 -0.9
Confluence Investment Management -0.5 0.5 1.0 -0.5
Rystad Energy -4.2 1.2 unch -0.9
Excel Futures -0.7 1.5 1.8 -0.4
Spartan Capital Securities 0.7 -1.3 2.2 n/f
Price Futures Group -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -2.0
Ritterbusch and Associates 1.4 1.6 -1.0 -0.4
Tradition Energy -2.9 -2.2 -2.6 n/f

AVERAGE -1.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.9

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.

n/f = no forecast

unch = unchanged

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

09-09-25 1233ET