India’s neighbourhood is in crisis.
In 2021, the Taliban returned to power after two decades in Afghanistan. The same year saw a coup by the military in Myanmar. In 2022, Sri Lanka’s economic protests caused the leadership – Mahinda and Gotabaya Rajapaksa – to flee. In Pakistan, Imran Khan was arrested after falling out of favour with the army.
In 2023, Mohamed Muizzu came to power in the Maldives after running an anti-India and pro-China campaign. In 2024, Sheikh Hasina was ousted after student-led protests and fled to India. Now,
Nepal’s KP Sharma Oli has resigned after the ‘Gen Z’ protests.
Let’s take a look at the political crisis in the neighbourhood and how it is a challenge for India.
Afghanistan
There’s an old saying in Afghanistan: You may have watches but we have the time.
So it proved in 2021 after the US, under then President Joe Biden, withdrew its forces after two decades of ‘nation building’. This followed the US-Taliban Doha Agreement of 19 February 2020, under then US President Donald Trump.
For India, the withdrawal of the US forces
marked the end of a two-decade-long relationship with the elected government of Afghanistan. India reacted by immediately evacuating its citizens and officials from Afghanistan in the operation known as Devi Shakti. New Delhi also halted all funding for developmental projects in Afghanistan and focused on humanitarian relief.
However, India
knew it needed to safeguard its interests in the region vis-à-vis access to Central Asia and Pakistani terrorism. By June 2022, India deployed a ‘technical team’ to its embassy to navigate the new landscape and coordinate the distribution of humanitarian aid.
Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri with Afghanistan’s acting foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai. Image Courtesy: @MEAIndia/X
India has continued to send A
fghanistan wheat, medicine, earthquake relief materials, pesticides, 100 million polio vaccines, 1.5 million COVID-19 vaccine doses, hygiene clothes, winter clothing and educational supplies.
India has since maintained a slow and steady approach to the Taliban. In January, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met with the regime’s acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, in Dubai – the first high-level engagement since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.
The Taliban have urged New Delhi to open up visas for students, businessmen and Afghan officials. In May, S Jaishankar had a phone conversation with Muttaqi, in which he thanked him for condemning the Pahalgam terror attack which left 26 dead. In short, India has tried to balance its commitments to democracy and freedom with realpolitik.
Myanmar
In 2021, Myanmar added a fresh new chapter to its long, troubled history. The military, known as the Tatmadaw, which has ruled the country formerly known as Burma for much of its history, staged yet another coup. This came after the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) lost elections the previous year.
Aung San Suu Kyi, the rightful leader of Myanmar, was deposed and placed under house arrest. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing took over. The move triggered widespread protests that have since devolved into a bloody civil war. The military is currently engaged in a multi-front war with several armed ethnic groups. It is estimated to control less than 30 per cent of Myanmar territory.
After the coup, New Delhi has tried to maintain good relations with Naypyitaw. This included sending supplies to the earthquake on 28 March 2025, that left nearly 5,500 dead and over 11,000 injured.
However, New Delhi has also tried to balance its ties with the top Tatmadaw officials with outreach to armed resistance groups like the Arakan Army and the KIA, as well as pro-democracy groups – many of which control key parts of the Myanmar border with India.
Footwear lie with scattered with debris on the ground of a high school after it was allegedly hit by a military airstrike in Ohe Htein Twin village in Tabayin township, also known as Depayin in Sagaing region, Myanmar, May12, 2025. Image- AP
While much of these initiatives are kept under wraps, there are reports that Indian foreign ministry officials have met with representatives of the Arakan Army in New Delhi and Aizawl. The Deputy Commissioner of Mizoram’s Lawngtlai District is said to have made a quiet visit across the border. The Mizoram Chief Minister and other senior state government officials also met Arakan Army representatives in Aizawl.
There are also reports that India is exploring a rare earth deal with the powerful KIA rebel group. The group was established in 1961 to secure the autonomy of Myanmar’s minority Kachin community. It is now one of the most formidable armed groups in Myanmar.
What complicates matters for India with regards to its foreign policy in Myanmar even more is the fact that the military junta is backed by China. Beijing has made massive investments in critical projects such as the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), the Letpadaung copper mine and the Tagaung nickel processing plant. Indeed, nearly two dozen of the Chinese initiatives in Myanmar are now in areas controlled by these armed ethnic groups.
Meanwhile, Suu Kyi, 80, has been sentenced to over two decades in prison after being persecuted by the military. Suu Kyi, who is said to be in poor health, is currently being held in a detention facility in Naypyidaw that was built specifically for her. Her National League for Democracy party was dissolved in 2023.
While Myanmar is set to hold elections in December, the junta isn’t easing up. Just today, news emerged of a man being sentenced to seven years of hard labour for criticising the government’s plans to do so. Meanwhile, the opposition and these pro-democracy and armed ethnic groups have vowed to oppose these polls. It remains to be seen how India manages to navigate this tricky situation going forward.
Sri Lanka
In 2022, Sri Lanka witnessed the worst economic crisis in its history. The Rajapaksas, the powerful clan headed up by Mahinda and Gotabaya, were at the helm of leadership as Prime Minister and President respectively.
Sri Lanka was facing a devalued currency, electricity cuts, and hyperinflation. Food, fuel and medicine were scarce. The country exploded into protests, particularly in the capital, Colombo, with thousands of people of all ethnicities hitting the streets every day.
First went Mahinda. Then, Gotabaya finally resigned as President and fled to the Maldives with his wife and security. Ranil Wickremesinghe, who had been tapped by Gotabaya to serve as Prime Minister, took over as Acting President.
India stepped in to offer Sri Lanka a lifeline during the economic crisis – nearly $4 billion in aid to help with food, health, and energy security – in keeping with its ‘Neighbourhood First’ ethos.
India has since worked with the leadership to normalise relations. In July 2023, Wickremesinghe undertook a visit to India with the aim of greatly increasing bilateral connectivity.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who took over from Wickremesinghe in 2024 with the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition, came to India for his first overseas visit since taking office. This was a significant symbol given that his Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) is thought to be ideologically compatible with China.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on Monday, December 16, 2024. Source: X | @MEAIndia.
In April, India and Sri Lanka for the first time signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on defence cooperation. This came in the backdrop of Modi making a visit to Sri Lanka. India and Sri Lanka have also signed a number of MoUs in the areas of economic cooperation, energy, and security domains.
Here again, India is looking to counter Chinese influence via its loans and infrastructure such as Hambantota Port and Colombo Port City, and counter Beijing’s ‘String of Pearls’ strategy to encircle India.
Pakistan
In May 2023, Imran Khan was arrested. It had been a little over a year since Imran, who had fallen out of favour with the Pakistan army, was ousted after losing a trust vote ordered by the Supreme Court.
Pakistan under Imran had downgraded diplomatic relations with India and halted trade. This followed after India revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s special status in 2019. Imran himself had said that the relationship between the two countries remained in a stalemate and that the countries could not move forward unless India reversed its decision.
Though Imran was succeeded by Shehbaz Sharif – the brother of former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif – everyone knows that the reins of the country remain firmly in the hands of the Pakistani establishment.
India and Pakistan’s relationship has been in a state of stasis since Imran’s arrest. In January, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said there had been no talks with Pakistan on the resumption of trade with India.
“After last year, there have been no talks with Pakistan on trade, nor has any initiative come from their side,” Jaishankar said.
In his speech, PM Modi referred to the Indus Waters Treaty and the success of Operation Sindoor while issuing a warning to Pakistan. PTI
However, the relationship between the two countries, which was already frosty at best, nosedived in April after the Pahalgam terror attack, which left 26 dead. India responded by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, closing the Attari–Wagah border post, cancelling Pakistani visas under the SAARC Visa scheme, expelling Pakistan’s military advisers in New Delhi, and reducing diplomatic staff to bare bones.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh promised a “very loud response”.
“We will not only reach those who perpetrated this act, we will even reach those who, sitting behind the scenes, conspired to carry out such nefarious activities on Indian soil,” Singh said.
Then, in May, India launched Operation Sindoor – targeting over two dozen terror bases in Pakistan, including ones deep in its territory. The strikes shook the Pakistani establishment to the core and had it begging for a ceasefire.
The strikes also signalled a strategic shift in Indian thinking towards Pakistan. This was outlined by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address to the nation on 12 May in which he vowed that India would not be intimidated by ‘nuclear blackmail’, that New Delhi would retaliate against any future attacks ‘strongly and resolutely’, and that it would no longer countenance any difference between ‘state’ and ‘non-state’ actors and targets when it comes to terrorism.
Maldives
In November 2023, Mohamed Muizzu took power in the Maldives. This development was witnessed with a wary eye by many in New Delhi. After all, Muizzu, who is thought to be pro-China, had run on an ‘India Out’ campaign – promising to evict Indian troops from the Maldives.
Things immediately started off on the wrong foot with Muizzu remarking, “We may be small, but that doesn’t give you the licence to bully us.” These remarks followed a five-day trip to China during which the two countries signed nearly two dozen agreements.
In the meantime, three ministers in Muizzu’s Cabinet made derogatory remarks about Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Many in India responded by calling for a boycott of tourism in the Maldives – a direct threat to much of its economy, which relies on tourism.
The data showed that fewer Indians visited the Maldives in the first few months of 2024 when compared to the same time period in previous years. However, India had already been working quietly on mending the frayed relationship.
Not only did New Delhi send a Cabinet minister to attend Muizzu’s swearing-in, Modi himself met Muizzu on the sidelines of COP28 in December 2023. Meanwhile, Jaishankar reached out to the Maldives with a “frank conversation” at the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Summit in January 2024.
The Indian troops had left the Maldives ahead of the deadline issued by Muizzu. However, New Delhi took care to send civilian technicians to the Maldives in May.
President of the Maldives Mohamed Muizzu, right, shakes hand with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after signing a memorandum of understanding between the two countries in Male, Maldives, Friday, July 25, 2025. (Indian Prime Ministers Office via AP)
In May 2024, Maldivian Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer, during a visit to India, spoke about how the government was willing to mend fences. “It is in our common interest that we reach an understanding of how best to take our relationship forward,” Jaishankar replied.
That same month, the Maldives’ Tourism Minister Ibrahim Faisal was begging Indian tourists to return to his country. “Please be a part of Maldives’ tourism. Our economy depends on tourism,” Faisal said.
Things began improving in June when Muizzu came to India to attend Modi’s swearing-in ceremony. During Muizzu’s October 2024 visit, India also announced financial support to the cash-strapped nation in the form of a $100-million treasury bills rollover.
The countries also signed a $400-million currency swap agreement during the five-day state visit. Muizzu has since thanked India for helping the Maldives during its time of need.
In July 2025, when Modi visited the Maldives to mark the 60th anniversary of its independence and diplomatic relations between the two countries, India announced a $565-million line of credit for Malé. India is also invested in a slew of infrastructure projects in the Maldives. The two countries have also launched formal talks for a free trade agreement.
India and China are in a tussle over who can draw the archipelago nation, strategically located in the Indian Ocean Region, closer. While India has long been a critical provider of development assistance to the Maldives, Malé joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2013 to build ports and highways and expand trade.
Bangladesh
India had long been a supporter and ally of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh. The Iron Lady of Bangladesh, as she was known, had been in power since 2008. The daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the “Father of Bangladesh”, had won a fourth straight term in January.
However, Hasina was ousted by student protests in August 2024 and fled to India via helicopter. Since then, an interim government has taken over Bangladesh, with Nobel Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus at the helm.
Unfortunately, this government has been ardently pro-Pakistan. “After August 5, relations with India have changed, and this is the reality,” Foreign Advisor Md Touhid Hossain has said.
Pakistan Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus. Image/X/@ChiefAdviserGoB
India has watched uneasily as Bangladesh resumed direct trade with Pakistan for the first time since 1971, importing 50,000 tonnes of rice via a government-to-government deal. Trade between the two countries surged by 27 per cent between August and December 2024, aided by the removal of mandatory physical inspections for Pakistani imports.
Bangladesh simplified visa processes for Pakistani citizens, while Pakistan reciprocated by waiving visa fees and security screening requirements. Dhaka has also moved closer to China, with Yunus securing LNG support, port funding, and industrial zone investments from China worth about $2.1 billion.
Meanwhile, Hasina’s presence in India has also been a thorn in the side, with Dhaka first asking her to ‘remain silent’ and then filing a formal extradition request in December 2024 under an existing extradition treaty.
Nepal
In July 2024, KP Sharma Oli returned as Prime Minister of Nepal for the third time. In New Delhi, Oli was viewed as another pro-China leader.
Much of the concern about Oli was whether or not he would implement China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Nepal – Xi Jinping’s pet project, which India has taken issue with over sovereignty and territorial integrity.
New Delhi and Kathmandu had clashed under Oli’s previous administration in 2020 after the country issued a new map that showed three Indian territories — Limpiyadhura, Kalapani, and Lipulekh — as part of Nepal.
Nepal did so again in December 2024 during a visit by Oli to Beijing — his first to a foreign country since his July swearing-in. Oli thus broke tradition by not making New Delhi, with which Kathmandu has centuries-old ties, his first foreign port of call.
Nepal’s prime minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli has resigned. AFP
Modi and Oli met on the sidelines of the 6th BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok on 4 April. Oli at the time denied any rift with Delhi.
“I will probably embark on a visit to India. My visit to India will take place after the two sides do necessary groundworks,” Oli said.
Oli also revealed that he had extended an invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Nepal. “Prime Minister Modi will probably visit Nepal towards November,” he said, adding, “I have already sent the invitation to him.”
“My India visit will take place at an appropriate time,” he added.
Oli also dismissed rumours that India doesn’t like him. “India did nothing bad when I became the Prime Minister,” he said. “We have very good relations with both India and China.”
In August, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met Oli in Kathmandu – which many saw as a prelude to Oli’s India trip.
Oli was to travel to India on 16 September. However, on Tuesday, Oli resigned after the ‘Gen Z’ protests. In a post on X, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to Nepal’s citizens to maintain peace and order. New Delhi, meanwhile, is watching and waiting.
With inputs from agencies