The International Monetary Fund believes that Ukraine will need $10–20 billion more in financing by 2027 than the government currently anticipates.
This is stated in the Bloomberg article.
This became known after recent negotiations in Kyiv, during which the parties discussed further financial support from the state.
Kyiv currently estimates the need at $37.5 billion for 2026–2027. But according to the IMF, the real amount could be significantly higher. If the fund’s forecasts are confirmed, the Ukrainian government will have to look for additional sources of funds among international partners.
The final amount will be determined in the coming weeks, after which Ukraine and the IMF will turn to Western allies to help cover the potential deficit.
The IMF does not comment on the exact amount, but confirmed that it is consulting with Kyiv regarding financing for the end of 2025, as well as 2026. The fund noted that the discussions will also take into account assumptions about the possible timing of the end of the war.
At the same time, the government and the Ministry of Finance are not publicly commenting on the situation, awaiting the final conclusions of the fund’s mission.
The virtual end of the current IMF program — $15.5 billion, most of which has already been disbursed — is prompting Kyiv to prepare for a new deal. The program runs until 2027 and was built on the assumption that the active phase of the war would end in 2024. However, the war continues, and the costs are rising.
By the end of the year, the government wants to get the “green light” from the IMF board for a new support package. It’s not just about the amounts, but also about the approaches to spending the funds. In particular, the fund is studying the validity of payments to the military, and also expects a reduction in the shadow economy, which, according to government estimates, accounts for more than 30% of GDP.
At the same time, the government does not plan to significantly raise taxes so as not to put pressure on businesses and citizens tired of the war.
According to Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko, the state budget deficit for 2026 is expected to be $45 billion. Of this amount, only $35 billion has already been guaranteed by partners. Ukraine must find the rest on its own — or with the support of the IMF and allies.
At the same time, the political situation in the West complicates the process. After Donald Trump returned to the White House, the EU became Kyiv’s main donor. But war fatigue is growing in the world, and each additional funding decision becomes increasingly difficult.
As a reminder, financial support from the International Monetary Fund, which is valid until 2026, has almost run out, and the available funds are catastrophically insufficient to cover the needs. At the same time, Ukraine is currently unable to implement the reforms, the so-called “beacons” proposed by the IMF.
As reported, the International Monetary Fund is considering the possibility of ending the current financing program for Ukraine and launching a new, longer-term one . Such scenarios are being discussed as part of preparations for the next stage of cooperation.
Also follow “Pryamim” on Facebook , Twitter , Telegram , and Instagram.