‘Zapad’ exercises start in Russia and Belarus, provocations possible / Article

As with all previous iterations of the drills, they are as much about sabre-rattling, propaganda, grabbing headlines and generally trying to get everyone else to freak out and make Russia feel important as they are about anything else.

Given the fact that Russia has only this week sent drones into NATO airspace and crashed them into Poland, it is not to be ruled out that further provocations are possible. The notion that an entire wave of attack drones was ‘accidentally’ sent hundreds of kilometres off course is credible only to those with an implacable desire to think the best of President Putin and his murderous regime.

The national defense news portal “Sargs.lv” has investigated what goals Russia might have in the “Zapad” exercises, including looking at the history of the exercises and the possibility that Russia and Belarus may attempt to carry out more provocations against their democratic neighbours.

Despite public statements from Russia and Belarus about the supposedly defensive nature of the exercises, the notion of actually believing a public statement emanating from either of the two dictatorships is again only for the pathologically credulous to accept, given their consistent track record of lies piled upon untruths, piled upon mountainous fantasies of delusion.  

Modern Russia, if there can be said to be such a thing, relaunched the Zapad exercises in 1999 with the simulated use of nuclear weapons against NATO countries.

“Zapad” became a regular joint exercise between Russia and Belarus in 2009. Their main goals – preparing for war with NATO countries – remained consistent. Although it was publicly claimed that “Zapad” was aimed at strengthening defensive capabilities, in reality it honed offensive warfare against a “highly technologically advanced adversary”, the number of candidates for which role are limited.

According to military analysts, in these exercises, Russia is deliberately training its armed forces for an invasion of the Baltic states and Poland with the subsequent occupation of the countries, in further evidence of the powerful fantasy lives of Russian policymakers.

There is also the notable fact that far from being defensive, the 2021 Zapad exercises will be remembered for preparing the Russian army for its infamous and failed invasion of Ukraine. During the exercises, Russia also demanded that NATO reduce the alliance’s presence in the Baltic states and Poland.

In turn, the exercises were used as cover for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, which also took place from the territory of Belarus.

Since 2022, Western countries have been perceiving “Zapad” as a harbinger of a possible Russian military threat. To prevent this, both NATO countries’ intelligence services and armed forces are on high alert.

So far, Belarus defines this year’s exercises as “measures aimed at ensuring the military security of the country” which is of course not worth the paper upon which it is written. It is not yet known exactly how many Russian military personnel and what type of equipment will participate in the exercises, but it is believed that the total number of soldiers will be smaller than in previous years, as Russian soldiers are still busy committing war crimes elsewhere, embroiled in the Kremlin’s continuing aggression against Ukraine.

As previously reported, an analysis prepared by the Constitutional Protection Bureau (SAB), one of Latvia’s three security services, states that the threat posed by “Zapad 2025” to Latvia and NATO is low.

Following the mid-week incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace, Latvia announced the closure of its airspace along its eastern border until September 18th, with the possibility of an extension after that. The decision is being justified by the need to improve the ability of air defense forces to shoot down and drones that do stray across the border.

During “Zapad”, the National Armed Forces (NBS) are conducting intensified reconnaissance activities and in-depth analysis of intelligence information. At the same time, combat readiness is being increased in NBS units by organizing the comprehensive national defense exercises “Namejs”, which are taking place from September 2nd to October 8th.

Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff of the NBS Brigadier General Egils Leščinskis said that the fact that the long-planned “Namejs” exercises are taking place in Latvia simultaneously with “Zapad” across the border provides certain advantages, because units have been notified, combat readiness tests have been conducted, and personnel are being assembled for the duration of the exercise, including various combat readiness tests. 

“The national armed forces, together with the responsible state institutions, have been observing the “Zapad” exercises from the very preparation phase, from early spring,” says Leščinskis. “Our intelligence officers are watching what is happening both in the context of direct preparation in Russia, Belarus, and also in the context of possible hybrid activities taking place here in the Baltics, including Latvia, and we are also looking at what parallels could be drawn between these activities. In other words, we are watching.”

Leščinskis also points out that possible provocations cannot be ruled out – information and influence operations carried out by Russia and Belarus, such as the spread of disinformation. Therefore, the public is being called on to critically evaluate all information, and not to disseminate questionable content from unverified sources.

Tell us about a mistake