French PM Bayrou braces for confidence vote loss • FRANCE 24 English

French PM Bayrou braces for confidence vote loss • FRANCE 24 English

Here in France that Emanuel Macron’s government is on the brink of collapse for the second time in just nine months. A confidence vote it is sure to lose set for Monday and the country’s fragmented parliament. Franis Bau by’s 44 billion euro plan to shore up his country’s shaky finances with a mix of spending cuts and tax hikes hasn’t convinced it’s been widely perceived as yet another move forcing the middle and lower classes to shoulder shoulder the burden brought on by years if not decades of frenzied spending including by this very government. for more. France 24’s international affairs commentator Douglas Herbert joins me on set. Hi Doug. A lot of talk about the budget, but this is clearly about more than just debt. Yeah, I’ll try to keep as many stats out of this as possible. Can’t make too many promises. Uh look, yeah, people everyone looking at France, at least on the outside, they’re they’re using words like France unstable, indebted, besieged. The picture is, you know, the the basket case of Europe right now, the sick man of Europe and and basically walking off a cliff about to fall into a big black hole. Is it that bad? Um, and how bad is it? Well, look, France’s economy has been called too big to fail. Remember you say that about American banks on Wall Street? Too big to fail, meaning they’ll be saved. They’ll be bailed out. Investors ultimately trust that they will somehow get through even the worst. So, it’s not about to walk off a cliff. It’s not to fall into a black hole. Does that mean things aren’t bad? Not at all. They are pretty bad. France hasn’t balanced a budget since I think 1974, right? 51 years. And you’re absolutely right. Every single government has been borrowing, borrowing, borrowing. So the problem right now is you have a situation in which France’s uh you know deficit levels are are way high skyhigh among the highest uh in Europe. Its debt is over three trillion uh euros and it keeps getting higher and just paying to service that debt that is paying interest on the debt is hundreds of billions of euros a year expected next year. So it is a big problem. Is it insurmountable? Is it as Franceu the outgoing probably outgoing prime minister says is it that France will have absolutely no financial future or no future if it fails to balance its budget now immediately is this is an existential crisis probably not. And you don’t, you know, even his detractors, you know, and and even his supporters are saying probably not. But he has made this his mission. He’s been talking about it for years, if not decades, balancing uh France’s teetering finances, trying to get things back in shape. But I’ll tell you right now, uh the rest of Europe looking on, you know, you look at Italy, which for years was seen as the basket case, the sick man. Greece back in the financial crisis, which literally brought Europe, the Euro zone almost to the brink of collapse. Uh France isn’t about to do that. Okay? It’s not Greece of 2012. Um, and it’s not even what Italy was uh a few decades ago, but it’s bad. It needs to be fixed. And the one thing in a country where no one can agree on anything right now is that people know that something has to change where the finances are concerned. Something has to change. But this does uh bring a whiff of dja vu, Doug. Especially from when you think back to Michelle Barney uh before Bou. If his government falls again for the same reason, what comes next? anything different this time? This is prime ministerial groundhog day, right? We have been here before, Erin. I mean, I could we basic maybe have said the same exact things. Uh yeah, but no, it’s not really a laughing matter. It’s the second government in 9 months which seems on the verge of falling. Um and for the same reason, you’re absolutely right on that budget. What’s going to happen next? Look, you know, the things that are the obvious things is you need a new prime minister, right? Easier said than done because France’s parliament is so polarized. It can’t find consensus on anything. There’s no grand, you know, national consensus government, national grand coalition as you had in Germany. Uh you don’t have that here in France. Everyone yells and shouts and bickers and they’ve been unable to really talk to each other. They talk at each other a lot. Um and that’s really why we are. So what could happen? Well, you could have the the president do what he did last year. A lot of most people saying a horrible miscalculation, dissolving the parliament, betting, gambling that he’ll get more of majority for himself. far right looked like it was going to grow in numbers in parliament. He did he want to sort of avert that. Instead, he brought on one of the worst most fractured parliaments in in recent decades here. So, that is a giant thing. You could have the parliament dissolving. Maybe not. The the word is that French presidential palace isn’t keen on dissolving government. Maybe and the rumors right now, the whisper campaigns, maybe they’ll try to push through a proportional uh system like you have in other European countries, a lot of other where parties will get a proportional representation in parliament which could help appease both the far left and the far right in in various ways. Will the president resign? Some are calling on him to do so. The far left is calling on him to step down. He’s not doing it. He said in the past 10 days, I am staying on till 2027. So to watch this space, I’ll tell you what, any prime minister he chooses is going to be right back to square one. Same same dilemma, same space could fall any time. Interesting. Interesting to put this in perspective with the uh the situation in Japan where indeed after some rather humiliating defeats, the the leader did indeed step down today. We’ll see where this takes Macron’s government then uh within 24 hours. Doug Herbert. Thank you very much.

French Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a confidence vote on Monday, which he is expected to lose, plunging the euro zone’s second largest economy deeper into political crisis. Details and analysis by FRANCE 24 international affairs editor, Douglas Herbert.
#France #politics #crisis

🔔 Subscribe to France 24 now: https://f24.my/YTen
🔴 LIVE – Watch FRANCE 24 English 24/7 here: https://f24.my/YTliveEN

🌍 Read the latest International News and Top Stories: https://www.france24.com/en/

Like us on Facebook: https://f24.my/FBen
Follow us on X: https://f24.my/Xen
Bluesky: https://f24.my/BSen and Threads: https://f24.my/THen
Browse the news in pictures on Instagram: https://f24.my/IGen
Discover our TikTok videos: https://f24.my/TKen
Get the latest top stories on Telegram: https://f24.my/TGen