Marek Kohv, a researcher at the Tallinn-based International Center for Defense Studies (ICDS), believes the NATO mission to bolster the eastern flank will likely increase Estonia’s air defense capabilities.
Several countries have already announced their participation in the NATO mission to bolster the alliance’s eastern flank after Russian drones violated Polish airspace last week . France, Germany, and Denmark, for example, all plan to send fighter jets to Poland. The United Kingdom has promised to announce its contribution in the near future and more allied forces are also expected to arrive in the east.
“The composition or structure of the ground forces component and the contribution of each country is still to be determined, but above all, we see that NATO is trying to better coordinate and integrate the capabilities that already exist on the eastern flank,” said ICDS researcher Marek Kohv.
For Estonia, it is likely to mean an increase in air defense capabilities. NATO has also promised a form of special drone defense.
“This primarily concerns increasing detection capabilities and response capabilities. These are the main directions and focuses but it is still a little too early to comment in more detail. We will let the planners do their work, let the different countries provide their input and then it will be possible to say more,” said Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform).
According to Kohv, most anti-drone capabilities in Europe and NATO are currently at the start-up level, so it is unclear what effective solutions could be produced in the region. Initially, it is likely that conventional means will continue to be relied upon, as was seen in Poland.
“Currently, the problem with NATO is that it is capable of responding and shooting down or damaging drones, but in reality, this is not a sustainable situation. If we take the cost of a fighter jet missile, which is in the range of €500,000 to €1 million, and the cost of a Russian drone, which is €10,000 to €50,000, then this situation is not sustainable,” Kohv said.
This is also the reason why not all the drones were shot down above Poland last week. At the same time, however, the Ukrainians have been much more successful and effective when it comes to drone warfare.
Jaak Tarien, former commander of the Air Force and head of business development at drone manufacturer Lendurai, said NATO still has a lot of room for improvement when it comes to modern warfare. At the same time, it is important to remember that Estonia has been operating in peacetime conditions up to now.
“In any case, in peacetime conditions, an air defense fighter has to be sent to an area to visually identify that it is definitely hostile before opening fire. That is why it took a little time for the air defense fighters to get there, and the tanker aircraft helped them stay there longer,” Tarien said.
Strengthening NATO’s self-defense is, of course, important, but according to Kohv, it will not deter Russia in any way. Punishment is what has an effect on them, which is why Europe and NATO need to take countermeasures. He believes the European Union’s best tool is sanctions. NATO, however, could provide Ukraine with substantial military aid.
“In my view, the ideal place right now would be Germany, from which Ukraine could be given Taurus missiles that it could use to attack both Russia’s oil industry, i.e., its war economy, and the drone factories where these drones are being built,” Kohv said.
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