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The Sikkim Glacial Lake Outburst Flood is one of the major disasters recentlyto be caused by climate change-induced glacial thinning, displacing more than 7,000 people. Cases of PTSD, anxiety and panic attacks have been reported amongst the survivors, both children and adults. Yet, while the focus has been on restoring healthcare infrastructure in the affected areas, the disaster management plans (DMPs) find no mention of counselling and psychiatric support for the victims. The absence of reliable data has made it difficult to determine the ability of survivors to rehabilitate and rebuild.
Global average temperatures rise year on year, with 2024 being the hottest year on record as each month breached the 1.5ºC warming limit. Its effects on weather events, infrastructure, agriculture, and even on human physiology, dominate publicdiscourse. However, an often overlooked fallout of the climate emergency is our mental health, which is rapidly gaining recognition. Mental disorders have a share of 6.54 percent of the global disease burden. There is an increasing consensus that this share is only set to increase due to the rising prevalence of stressors associated with resource insecurity, displacement and eco-anxiety. Although various epidemiological studies have tried to establish linkages between different aspects of climate change and mental health outcomes, the phenomenon has been hitherto understudied. The lack of systematic data collection hides the severity of this crisis.
A survey done to assess the psychological impact on the survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami shows a 27.2 percent prevalence for depression and anxiety and a 79.7 percent prevalence for mild to severe stress.
However, with possible ramifications of increasing temperatures on the rehabilitation of displaced communities, criminal behaviours, cognition and productivity, urgent attention is merited. In this regard, the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare’s National Action Plan on Climate Change and Mental Health (NPCCMH) is a laudable step that lays a broad framework to address these challenges. Nevertheless, assimilating this framework into local policy interventions remains to be seen.
Natural Disasters and Mental Health
Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events worldwide. Such disasters are typically followed by food and water insecurity, unemployment and homelessness, which can cause various psychological and psychiatric disorders amongst displaced communities. It has been noted that the incidence of such disorders is 40 percent more than physical injuries caused by a disaster.
A survey done to assess the psychological impact on the survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami shows a 27.2 percent prevalence for depression and anxiety and a 79.7 percent prevalence for mild to severe stress. Prevalence of sleep disorders and even increased substance use has been observed amongst victims of floods and landslides. Natural disasters can also impact the unborn and increase the risk of them developing neurodevelopmental conditions such as ADHD and autism. Nevertheless, it does not take only an adverse weather event to escalate the mental health crisis, as rising temperatures can have a bearing on our daily lives as well.
Rising Temperatures, Aggression and Crime
Studies have shown the correlation between temperatures and behavioural outcomes. Ambient temperatures can alter blood flow and serotonin levels, as well as disrupt our sleeping patterns. Thus, higher temperatures have been shown to increase irritability, mood swings and aggressive behaviour, a phenomenon referred to as the “temperature-aggression hypothesis”. According to a meta-analysis by Yale School of Environment, this phenomenon showed a positive correlation between an increase in mean temperatures and rates of homicidal and sexual crimes across parts of Asia. Even a 1℃ increase in annual mean temperature has been found to increase the prevalence of interpersonal violence against women in South Asia by 4.49 percent. This trend can be observed acutely in metropolitan areas as they metamorphose into urban heat islands (UHIs) due to increasing concretisation, vehicular pollution and air-conditioning. An urban heat mapping model of Sydney suggested an increase in the frequency of violent crimes as surface temperatures in UHIs increased with a proportional decrease in green cover.
A study by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health has shown that students perform cognitive tasks more slowly in higher temperatures when compared to moderate temperature settings.
Increased aggression caused by higher temperatures spills over to our online behaviour too. A study published in The Lancet mapped the prevalence of hate tweets with the local average temperatures in the United States. It found that there was a 22 percent increase in hate speech online as temperatures deviated from the moderate range towards the hot weather extremes. With digital media gradually becoming the primary source of social interaction for the younger generations, such temperature induced extreme behaviours can increase instances of online harassment as well as heighten feelings of isolation, depression, and self-harm.
Impact on Cognition and Productivity
Consequences of a rising mercury go beyond altering behaviour and can hamper our brain’s cognitive functions. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, can disrupt our critical thinking, problem-solving solving and decision-making processes as they interfere with neurotransmission activity in the body. A study by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health has shown that students perform cognitive tasks more slowly in higher temperatures when compared to moderate temperature settings.
In a survey conducted on a controlled sample of workplaces, workers in spaces with low concentrations of Volatile Organic Compounds, some of which are deemed to be greenhouse gases, scored 61 percent more on cognitive tests than their counterparts. This can lead to ramifications for the work sector. As per an estimate by the International Labour Organisation, heat stress can lead to labour productivity losses of US$2,400 billion by 2030.
Disproportionate Socio-Economic Impact
These mental health outcomes will disproportionately affect poor, marginalised and vulnerable communities. Surveys have shown a higher prevalence of depression and anxiety amongst survivors belonging to lower-income groups. Communities living in mountainous, coastal and island terrains will be at a greater risk of displacement-induced eco-anxiety.
Surveys have shown a higher prevalence of depression and anxiety amongst survivors belonging to lower-income groups.
Furthermore, in the cities, gated residential areas with better access to green spaces and air-conditioning will experience fewer law and order issues compared to slums and irregular housing colonies that lack basic civic amenities. This inequality will only get exacerbated since inhabitants of the latter usually work informal jobs in sectors such as agriculture and construction, which will be most impacted by rising temperatures. A similar trend will be seen across schools and workplaces. Thus, the impact of global warming on mental health outcomes will become a function of rising income and economic inequality.
Policy Recommendations
A major impediment in designing policy tools is the lack of consistent data. While NDMA has issued guidelines for psychosocial risk profiling of affected communities throughout the disaster management cycle, there is a lack of SOPs in State or District DMPs for the requisite data collection. In this regard, Japan, a leader in disaster management, has established Disaster Mental Health Care Centers and Disaster Psychiatric Assessment Team System databases that collate data post specific disasters and from counsellors at the provincial level, respectively. India can benefit from incorporating such models in DMPs at sub-national and district levels.
Furthermore, data is also necessary to address the impact of rising temperatures on general mental well-being. To mitigate this, the NPCCMH proposes surveillance programmes through District Environmental Health Cells that are tasked with collecting and collating data on “mental health problems” from government-run health care facilities. For efficient implementation, the Plan should delineate the scope of this terminology and identify critical districts using IMD’s ‘Climate Hazard and Vulnerability Atlas of India’.
These efforts should be supplemented by providing better access to mental health services, specifically to vulnerable communities. Heat Action Plans can be useful tools to provide localised counselling services through Primary Health Centers, Anganwadi Centers or tele-counselling services under the Tele Manas Programme of the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare.
Infrastructure changes are necessary to counter the ‘UHI Effect’, which can lead to an average surface temperature increase of up to 2.5℃ in urban areas. Strategies such as expanding urban green spaces, rejuvenation of local water bodies, district cooling systems, lime-washing of roofs and adopting construction practices suitable to the local climate can help in moderating temperatures. Urban development schemes such as Nagar Van Yojana, Amrit Sarovar Yojana and State Cool Roof Policies can be leveraged to alleviate the heat stress in cities.
Conclusion
As inequalities of income, wealth and access to resources increase, a concomitant surge will be seen in the mental health burden, as the disproportionate effects of climate change will widen the schism of global inequality. Consequently, addressing associated mental health challenges becomes pertinent for community health and social cohesion. Although the World Health Organisation and many national governments have acknowledged these challenges, a mere recognition on the policy level will not suffice. A multi-stakeholder and inter-ministerial approach is required for systematic data collection and increasing access to mental health services. More investments are required to mitigate heat stress in urban areas. Only a cross-sectoral comprehensive approach can prepare India to mount a resilient response to the adversities of the future.
Aadya Chaturvedi is a Research Assistant with the Center for Economy and Growth at the Observer Research Foundation.
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