“ISW continues to assess that the playbook Russia is currently using to threaten NATO mirrors the playbook Russia previously used to set informational conditions justifying its aggression against Ukraine.”
The analysts allege that the Kremlin is running a coordinated information operation against Finland, aimed at disgracing the Finish government while making the country appear unstable,
“Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed on September 18 that the Finnish government’s “neutral veneer peeled off” and that revanchism is “literally on the rise” in Finland,” they said.
According to the Estonian government, this comes after three Russian fighter jets entered Estonian airspace and remained there without permission for 12 minutes.
This marks the third incursion into a NATO member states airspace in a fortnight after Russian drones flew into both Poland and Romania. The military alliance swiftly condemned both moves.
In response, NATO is set to assemble in Estonia next week to discuss Russia’s recent incursion.
The organization’s spokesperson, Allison Hart, said that the North Atlantic Council would convene early next week.
“This is yet another example of reckless Russian behaviour and NATO’s ability to respond,” Hart said.
Estonia, which borders Russia, requested consultations under Article 4 of the Washington Treaty, which states that parties will consult together when “the territorial integrity, political independence or security” of any party is at risk.
Previously, Poland triggered Article 4 on 10 September after Russia’s incursion into its airspace.
It is different from Article 5, the cornerstone of the alliance. This article states that an armed attack on one NATO member will be considered an act of violence against all members, thus triggering prompt assistance to the allied country concerned.
When asked about Russia’s incursion into Estonia, President Trump told reporters on Friday: “I don’t love it. I don’t like it when that happens. Could be big trouble.”
The recent behaviour from Russia, whereby it has allegedly crossed over into the airspace of three NATO member states, has raised fears among some that it could be laying the groundwork for another invasion.