On 17 September 2025, Riyadh and Islamabad formalized a defense agreement that has implications extending well beyond the Gulf region. For the first time, a major Arab monarchy formally linked its security to that of the world’s only Muslim-majority nuclear power. The symbolism is obvious: Saudi Arabia can now claim to benefit from a “nuclear umbrella,” even if the practical contours of such a guarantee remain vague. For Israel, the consequences are immediate in political terms, potentially long-term in strategic ones.
A shift in deterrence psychology
Until now, Israel’s military superiority in the region was tempered mainly by Iran’s projection capabilities and by Hezbollah’s arsenal in Lebanon. The Saudi–Pakistani pact introduces a new deterrent ambiguity. If Israeli strikes targeted Saudi assets, could Pakistan be dragged in? No credible analyst believes Islamabad is ready to launch nuclear weapons on Riyadh’s behalf, but the mere doubt alters the cost–benefit calculation. For Israel’s decision-makers, each operation in the Gulf now carries the shadow of a broader escalation.
Political symbols and operational limits
It would be a mistake, though, to exaggerate the effect on operations. Pakistan is far away from other countries, has a divided government, and is limited by its constitution in how it can use its nuclear weapons. Above all, the agreement is a political signal: Islamabad reminds the world of its strategic importance outside of South Asia, while Riyadh shows off its capacity to rally a nuclear ally. Any automatic retaliation is unlikely in practice due to command-and-control realities. Perception, however, can be just as important in geopolitics as ability.
Israel’s dilemma: caution without paralysis
For Israel, the agreement complicates the already delicate equation of deterrence and preemption. Confrontation with Saudi Arabia risks activating Pakistani solidarity and alienating Washington, whose role as arbiter remains central. So, the most likely response is to simultaneously step up intelligence efforts to keep an eye on Saudi-Pakistani cooperation and push the US to make its red lines and crisis-management channels clearer.
India enters the equation
One of the less-discussed consequences of this pact is the way it brings South Asia’s rivalries into Middle Eastern geopolitics. India immediately voiced its concern, urging Riyadh to “mind sensitivities.” New Delhi, which sees Pakistan’s nuclear diplomacy as destabilizing, now has even greater incentive to coordinate with like-minded partners. Here, Israel appears as a natural interlocutor. The two countries already cooperate in defense technology and intelligence; the new Saudi-Pakistani axis could accelerate that trend.
Yet caution is required. India’s economic interdependence with Saudi Arabia is deep: energy supplies, remittances, and investment flows. New Delhi will not jeopardize those ties by entering an overt anti-Riyadh coalition. What we are likely to witness is a subtler strengthening: enhanced intelligence sharing with Israel, closer trilateral consultations with Washington, and perhaps discreet coordination in multilateral forums.
A new fault line
The Saudi-Pakistani agreement adds an additional barrier to an already broken regional order, beyond the people who are directly involved. Iran and its allies will call it a Sunni nuclear axis, Turkey may try to reaffirm its own leadership claims, and smaller Gulf monarchies will watch cautiously as Riyadh shows off its military strength. Israel’s challenge is to protect its deterrence while not being seen as the bad guy in this changing situation.
The bottom line
Perceptions in chancelleries are more important to the Riyadh-Islamabad defense pact than missiles on launchpads. For Israel, it means operating in a theater where deterrence is clouded by new ambiguities, where the risks of miscalculation multiply, and where South Asia’s rivalries spill into the Middle East. If handled with strategic patience—cultivating U.S. guarantees, intensifying intelligence vigilance, and quietly drawing India closer—Israel can navigate this new equation. But one truth stands out: the nuclear dimension has once again crept into Middle Eastern politics, and no actor can ignore the risks it entails.
Gilles Touboul is passionate geopolitical analyst and former trader specializing in Asian and Middle Eastern markets. An observer of international upheavals, he regularly speaks on topics related to conflicts, international relations, and the impact of geopolitics on the global economy. A graduate in oriental languages and international relations, Gilles lives in Israel