Any Nato staff hoping for a quiet September must be feeling disappointed. Estonia has sought consultations with other Alliance members after three Russian fighter jets violated its air space on Friday morning. Lest this appear a one-off accident, Russian drones this month breached Poland’s and Romania’s skies, bringing Nato — in the words of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk — “the closest we have been to open conflict since World War Two”.
So why is Moscow doing this? The strategy is straight from the Kremlin playbook. Such incursions constitute aggressive activities that do not meet the criteria for an Article Five attack that would provoke a collective defence from the Alliance. Yet, they still cause disruption while allowing Russia a degree of plausible deniability. For additional examples, one need only look at Moscow’s other preferred forms of grey zone activity, such as sabotage and cyberattacks.
While none of these breaches may constitute an actual attack on Nato, they may well be laying the foundations for one. This year, Germany’s defence chief claimed Moscow could strike the Alliance by 2029, while Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte has posited a scenario whereby Russia could “keep Nato busy in Europe” as China seizes Taiwan.
With those portents of doom in mind, the recent uptick in Russian hostility looks less like causing trouble and more like probing the Alliance’s defences for weak points, seeing how quickly and efficiently it responds to different threats, and taking away valuable technical lessons on how Nato defends itself for use in planning a future offensive.
Yet, if any strike is still years away, the question is why Moscow is rushing to stage so many of these incidents now. Perhaps because Russia is laying not only the military foundations for war, but also the psychological foundations. The recent violations of Nato air space have brought tough statements from leaders, the summoning of Russian Ambassadors, rapidly convened meetings and pledges to bolster the eastern flank. But how long before that initial energy starts to wane and low-level incidents become normalised, with politicians wondering if it is truly worth dragging everyone into yet another meeting over a minor transgression?
At that stage, Vladimir Putin may not even need to engage the Alliance in a full-scale confrontation, instead gradually eroding Nato defences, blurring borders, and encroaching on his neighbours. We can expect Moscow to maintain a regular level of low-level breaches, as Putin waits for Western politicians and journalists to take their attention elsewhere. Besides, while it is unlikely to have been his primary purpose, seeing the tensions that Moscow’s drone incursion sparked between Ukraine and Poland will only increase the Russian leader’s appetite for more of the same.
Russian aggression towards the West is nothing new. Yet, the latest incursions have been distinguished by the frenetic pace at which they are being organised. This is not hostility for the sake of it, but an attempt by the Kremlin to put in the psychological and military preparations for a broader conflict. And, what’s more, if it becomes typical for Russian drones to soar into Nato territory, the Alliance will have ceased to do its job. But Putin will have done his.