In a data-driven “State of the Union” address in Enniskillen last week, the former DUP policy chief argued that, despite Sinn Féin’s electoral rise, a border poll held today would still favour the Union, but only if unionists broaden their appeal beyond core supporters and develop a long-term plan.
He claims that one of his main findings was that, despite Sinn Féin’s success at the polls, they would be well outvoted in any referendum on unity — despite the fragmentation of unionist parties.
“What do we have to do differently in future, to be successful?” Mr. Reynolds challenged a packed audience.
The numbers come from years of polling, he explained. “In 2019, the University of Liverpool polled Westminster Election voters and it told who they voted for, why they voted for them, and what their attitudes were across a whole range of topics,” he explained.
In 2021, Mr. Reynolds ran two polls in Northern Ireland, six months apart, surveying 1,500 people to gauge attitudes and what people wanted from politics.
“Previously, Northern Ireland had just two tribes; now all the stats tell us we have three communities,” he said. “You have British/Irish, Unionist/Nationalist and Neither/Other. About two-thirds of those surveyed see it as the old debate, asking if Northern Ireland is going to be in the UK or is it going to be abolished.
“There is another bunch of people who do not care about that, who care more about what sort of Northern Ireland am I going to be living in. The data shows that someone who says they are British or Unionist is more likely to vote, and decisions are made by people who turn up, so a good positive identity has a political bonus.”
Mr. Reynolds noted that those who describe themselves as British tend to be older. “It drops towards younger people,” he said, adding that unionism has a “class problem.”
“The working class and lower middle class have no problem in calling themselves unionists,” he explained. “People who are upper middle class and wealthy have a problem calling themselves unionists.”
Turning to the third group, Mr. Reynolds said: “They are sometimes described as Northern Irish or Neithers. They are not the same. People who say they are Northern Irish, if you ask them about the referendum on unity, they are more unionist. This group are mostly outside Belfast and they are mostly younger.
“The Neithers are a different bunch, and since 1998 younger people who would have previously said about 30 years ago that they were unionist are now more relaxed and they take a step away and say they are Northern Irish. They have grown up with the Northern Ireland Assembly.”
Mr. Reynolds also warned of challenges among nationalist voters. “There is a section of the Catholic/Nationalist community. They are the not-yetters, and if asked if they want to see Northern Ireland abolished, they will say yes but not until about 20 years.
“Ten per cent of people who vote for nationalist parties would not vote in a referendum on a united Ireland. The risks for this group are that they are underrepresented and less likely to vote. A large amount of voting is a habit. There is a large group of Don’t Knows who could be persuaded by either side.”
On his polling, Mr. Reynolds said: “In the poll I conducted, those who would vote stay in the UK were above 50 per cent. Leave went up a bit, but stay was the winner, and then there are the ‘Don’t Knows’.
“As to identity, Northern Irish is the most popular choice and right now 63 per cent of them vote for the Alliance Party. But in a referendum, 59 per cent are for stay and 39 per cent for leave, and 10 per cent are up for grabs. Cradle unionism is not as strong as it was; the future of unionism was built on persuasion and a better offer.”
He claimed: “On a good day in a referendum, Pro UK would win 65 per cent of the vote. On an average day, we would win 60 per cent of the vote. On a bad day, we would win 55 per cent of the vote, but political unionism is having trouble getting above 43 per cent of the vote.”
Mr. Reynolds said unionists needed to create campaigns that “reach those people and keep those people with us. I have proposed in the past that there needs to be a unionist commission to have a significant strategic deep think-in.
He claimed that political nationalist has latched on to ‘the latest thing.’
Mr. Reynold claimed: “They said Brexit would be a game-changer, but it wasn’t. They were going to win the Irish General Election, but that did not happen. They have spent their time saying a United Ireland is about to happen, but it never does. Mystic Meg is better at predicting the future than Irish republicanism. But we fall for it in unionism.”
He added: “They put a lot of people off with their predictions, and then we have Ireland’s Future who organise big events with all of them talking to each other and no new thinking or planning and as much to convince themselves that it is about to happen.”
Mr. Reynolds also challenged the nationalist strategy: “Where is the plan for a new Ireland or is there a document? If someone is a great strategist and has had 104 years to plan to get rid of Northern Ireland, they would be able to produce one. They have no plan and if you put five nationalists in a room they would come up with five different answers. The southern voter is not interested, as a united Ireland is an aspirational thing.”
On the way forward, he told those gathered in Enniskillen: “We have to build a political trinity of hard unionists, centrists and disengaged, and we have to work with all of them. Firstly, we need to try and unite unionism and there has to be a substantial think-in and long-term plan. We have to live by three questions: What does this do for our community, what does it do for Northern Ireland and what does it do for the UK? Sometimes the answers to those three questions will not be the same, which goes back to how we need to engage with each other.”
He urged positivity: “We need people to be active in our community and active in our politics. Being positive is very important, and if we depress ourselves, why would anyone go to the polls? Let’s build on what we share with others. Unionism is great at getting excited and going in spurts, but we don’t keep it up, we need to learn to endure if we are going to beat our opponents.”