In addition to managing National Parks, as well as recreation and conservation, it’s the primary job of the Department of the Interior to permit and regulate energy operations on public lands and water, and offshore. As the administration slashes staff at DOI, embroils the department in litigation, and changes policy unpredictably, the chaos is starting to spill over to extraction. And oil executives are starting to get pissed.

One comment made by an anonymous oil exec to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reads: “The noise and chaos is deafening! Who wants to make a business decision in this unstable environment?

Another: “The uncertainty from the administration’s policies has put a damper on all investment in the oilpatch. Those who can are running for the exits.”

And: “What was once the world’s most dynamic energy engine has been gutted by political hostility and economic ignorance.”

Those comments were solicited as part of the Dallas Fed’s survey of executives at 139 oil and gas companies in Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico. These anecdotes are backed up in data, with the Dallas fed reporting its oil and gas company outlook index fell from an already negative -6.4 in the second quarter of of 2025 to .-17.6. Both energy and oilfield services companies say they plan to reduce capitol investments in the region as a result, and many plan to spend that money on foreign drilling operations instead.

Why is this happening? Oil and gas are global markets, in which prices are determined by supply and demand, and profits are dictated by costs.

The cost of extracting oil from shale in that region—colloquially known as the “oilpatch”—is relatively high already. Many producers there say they need the price of a barrel of oil to be at least $65 in order to turn a profit. Futures prices currently range between $62 and $70.

While the administration’s deregulation has reduced costs for domestic oil producers by about $1.99 a barrel, its other policies are increasing costs while reducing demand. Industry execs cite Trump’s 15 percent tariff on steel and 50 percent tariff on aluminum, for instance, which are needed to build pipelines and oil rigs, the broader economic slowdown caused by trade uncertainty, and the White House’s push for lower gasoline prices in order to influence voters in next year’s mid-terms.

“The administration is pushing for $40 per barrel crude oil, and with tariffs on foreign tubular goods, [input] prices are up, and drilling is going to disappear,” responded one surveyed executive.

“Guided by a U.S. Department of Energy that tells them what they want to hear instead of hard facts, [the administration] operates with little understanding of shale economics,” writes another. “Instead of supporting domestic production, they’ve effectively aligned with OPEC—using supply tactics to push prices below economic thresholds, kneecapping U.S. producers in the process.”

Unseen to the public, a power struggle between extraction industry interests and small government ideologues has been playing out inside DOI, according to insiders. Tyler Hassen, the DOGE operative who took over operations at DOI in April pushed to slash employees across entire departments and replace them with AI tools, even while industry lobbyists newly employed as DOI managers pushed to retain the ability to competently perform regulation.

As I’ve explained previously, the energy industry is reliant on regulatory certainty in order to plan out large capitol expenditures. New oilfields, for instance, can take a decade or more to turn a profit. And to justify longterm investments there needs to be stability in variables like the price of oil, the cost of operations, regulatory frameworks, and competition. But as DOI rushes to implement Trump’s war on renewable energy, decisions like yanking permits for wind farms are being performed incompetently, all but guaranteeing that they won’t stick. And watching that happen, the oil execs have cause to worry.

“Day to day changes to energy policy is no way for us to win as a country,” responds one exec. “Investors (rightly) avoid investing in energy (of all types, now) because of the volatility of underlying business results as well as the ‘stroke of pen’ risk that the federal government wields as it relates to long duration energy developments. Life is long, and the sword being wielded against the renewables industry right now will likely boomerang back in 3.5 years against traditional energy which will find itself facing harsher methane penalties, permitting restrictions, crazy environmental reviews and other lawfare tactics.”

Even the administration’s on-again, off-again support for the war in Ukraine is hurting U.S. oil producers, according to one executive, who says, “OPEC overproduction is affecting our business. So is weak sanctions on Russia. U.S. production staying flat while non-U.S. and non-OPEC production is growing exacerbating the glut. The administration’s tariffs, particularly on steel and aluminum at fifty percent, are increasing our cost of business.”

How is all of this relevant to public lands? For one, this chaos is going to limit the development of new extraction projects, even as the administration says it wants to increase those. Already, energy production had risen to record levels during the Biden years, with oil and gas producers stating that they did not plan to expand production, even if doing so was made easier or cheaper. Since Trump is making drilling for oil and gas harder and more expensive, it’s unlikely we’ll see a major expansion of operations during his tenure.

Second, this is eroding support for the administration, and its privatization agenda. If you’ll remember back to the campaign, these are the same executives from whom Trump solicited $1 billion donations in return for policies that would make domestic oil and gas production more profitable. Failing to follow through on that promise, after taking the money, is not looking popular amongst this key demographic.

And third, the enemies of our enemy are our friends. The man responsible for keeping DOI operations on track is interior secretary Doug Burgum. But while he’s busy trying to turn BLM land into luxury golf courses and breaking the park service in an attempt to justify privatizing its operations, he’s also failing to competently run his department in service of energy. Pushing Burgum out of that role is probably the most important accomplishment we can pursue as we try to save public lands. And while it might feel like talking to a brick wall when you or I call our Republican congresspeople and demand oversight, that is very much not the case when an oil executive picks up the phone. It looks like we just won some powerful new allies as we fight for competent management of our public lands.

Photo: DOI

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