Transactional loyalties: Netanyahu, Trump, and the war for power, influence & relevance

Jessica, good to hear from you as always. Jessica and Missouri, our correspondent in New York. Let’s bring in Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at the Kanei Endowment for International Peace and former State Department Middle East analyst, negotiator in both Republican and Democratic administrations. Great to have you on the program this evening, Erin. Um, a number of things have happened during that and after as well. President Trump having a kind of doorstep moment with reporters saying, “I think we got a deal in Gaza.” Didn’t elaborate too much, perhaps not surprisingly. What was your take? not just on the speech itself but the kind of choreographed moment having the speakers on the Israeli Gaza border as well. Uh you know the speech was first of all Benjamin Netany fashions himself an international statesman. He prides himself in his uh capacity to articulate. He’s been extremely effective. I remember one of my former bosses Maline Albbright described him as the American N Gingrich. A prime minister can be very persuasive in English and in Hebrew and he laid out his case. I don’t think there was any expectations on his part that this would be received well, let alone warmly. You saw that from the walk out. A few jeers here and there. Look, I I the the speech was fine in terms of what he wanted to accomplish to tell quote unquote what his version of the truth. The only thing that matters frankly is his capacity to persuade a constituency of one and that is the president of the United States who over the last almost nine months now more than nine months I think has basically acquiesed Netanyahu’s both tactics and strategy in Gaza. And the real question to me is whether or not he can persuade the president even with his 21point plan to give Netanyahu more time. He’s he’s repeatedly said this that with more time we can eliminate Hamas, not just as a military organization, but make sure that it has zero influence in Gaza. It’ll be disarmed, maybe its leaders will be exiled, and then we’ll be able to have a day after. And he laid out what the day after would look like. Free the hostages, more humanitarian assistance with Israel maintaining the overall security responsibility for Gaza. I think he referred to a non Hamas maybe Palestinian [Music] uh technocratic government uh joined by members of the international community. Well, which takes us on to two things. First of all, let’s talk about President Trump because if we go back 24 hours where he talked about in in his speech and remember a point that you’ve just made, it’s as capricious as we talk about the President Trump can be and the different types of people he can be influenced by. He was sitting with President Erdogan who was a word in the year the first time in six years that those two had sat down together and we know his views against Benjamin Netanyahu and against the the continuing conflict in Gaza. And President Trump told reporters he would not allow the continuation annexation of the West Bank. And I just wonder your point to the fact that he’s had a welcome audience Benjamin Netanyahu with President Trump before. Do you sense that’s changing? uh you know it’s really hard to say the material nature of this particular president. I mean look look at his about face if that in fact what it is with respect to Vladimir Putin and Ukraine now arguing that Ukraine can win and reclaim all of its territory. Probably a fantasy. Um I think President Trump like most of the presidents I worked for is reluctant to say the least uh to create a major breach. There have been tensions between Israeli prime ministers and American presidents and secretaries of state before Democrats and Republicans. I don’t think Trump has reached the point yet where in fact he sees Benjamin Netanyahu as an obstacle to something that he wants. And remember this is a president who measures a success or failure not in terms of the American national interest but in terms of his political financial interests, his vanities, his pet peeves and pet pet projects. Has he concluded that he can in fact get a Nobel? He talks about it uh constantly. And if he does conclude that if ending the war in Gaza and building a bridge uh to some political horizon for Palestinians, a small state, a confederation, something would allow Saudis and Saudi Arabia to normalize and recognize Israel, then I think he’d be interested in bringing pressure on Benjamin Netanyao. But until he persuades himself, and I don’t think he’s there yet, that there’s something in it for him. Remember, Trump talks in terms of the me, not the we. And I think until that day comes, maybe it’ll come on Monday, uh, that he’ll say enough. Uh, I think we’re going to see more of the same. Erin, can I get your brief thoughts as well on a name that’s come up and perhaps Benjamin Netanyahu was was going towards this area today, a governor for Gaza, a transition authority ahead, potentially not ruling himself out, Tony Blair. Yeah. I mean, look, I don’t think the who, frankly, is important here. It’s the what that counts. It’s the what and answering the three core questions. Who or what’s going to govern Gaza? Who or what is going to provide security uh and law and order? and who it was to begin the torturously complicated process of trying to repair Gaza and reconstruct it. That’s what counts. And the three parties that count here, one is the prime minister of Israel, two is a punitive Palestinian leader, and number three is Donald Trump. If Tony Blair’s plan makes sense and if two of the three parties to this triangle buy off on it, whether it involves Tony Blair or doesn’t, frankly, is irrelevant. The question is, will it work? And will the leaders who are charged with implementing it, not just conceiving it, implementing it, will they put the political will and muscle behind it? Erin, good to talk to you tonight. Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Canal Nigi Endowment for International Peace. Thank you. Former State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator.

Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to cast himself as an international statesman. He crafts arguments in English and Hebrew, keenly aware that persuasion is a power unto itself. Then there’s Donald Trump: unpredictable, even volatile, driven by a self-serving transactional logic. And yet Netanyahu often persuades him to embrace his worldview. Trump’s endless impulses and appetite for legacy projects make their alignment a fragile calculus, so will this dynamic hold? And what will become of the conflict across the Middle East? Gavin Lee welcomes Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
#UN #Trump #Netanyahu

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5 comments

  2. American here. Trust me when I tell you, it's not just Trump, it's the ENTIRE Republican party that's insane and cannot be trusted.

  4. Give Netanyahu a break.
    He's like an 0n|yFans model who used to be famous, but now only has an overweight 79-year-old lunatic as a subscriber.

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