WW3 could be ‘inevitable’ claim defence experts, unless NATO responds to Moscow’s continued threats(Image: UK MoD)
Defence experts have issued a stark warning that conflict with Russia is inevitable unless NATO shows strength and unity in response to Moscow’s escalating provocations. This follows a separate caution from Estonian defence minister Hanno Pevkur, who suggested that Moscow’s recent wave of hybrid attacks is designed to force NATO members to focus on their own defence rather than supporting Ukraine.
Keir Giles, a representative from Chatham House, expressed his concerns: “I fear a kinetic war with Russia is looking inevitable, because the measures to prevent such a war are still not being taken. Russia today has little to deter it from taking on the West should the US be neutralised as a factor.”
Mr Giles, who penned Who Will Defend Europe?, further commented: “Despite all the rhetoric and promises, we see little concretely achieved, as was shown when Poland experienced just a tiny fraction of the drone waves suffered by Ukraine every night. It would have no way of dealing with that scale of Russian drone attack.”
Three Russian MiG-31 fighters violated Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland (Image: GETTY)
Lauri Almann, former Estonian deputy defence minister, stated that an all-out conflict could only be avoided “if we can show resolve and strength”. He continued: “Russia respects strength, and that’s the only message that more or less has worked.”
Professor Mark Galeotti, author of Putin’s Wars, also cautioned that Moscow’s reckless decision-making increases the likelihood of conflict , reports the Express.
He stated: “Russia does not actually want war, but the more aggressive and reckless they are, the greater the risks. Putin didn’t intend to be involved in this war in Ukraine. All kinds of calculations can be made that seem perfectly sensible but just happen to be deeply stupid.”
He emphasised the importance of credible deterrence, adding: “Putin is pretty risk-averse. He likes to play daring and threatening, but actually he operates cautiously. When they do get pushback, the Russians have a tendency to pull back. The thing is to actually have the capacity to be able to offer pushback.”
This warning comes as Estonia’s Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur highlighted Moscow’s recent series of hybrid attacks – ranging from drone incursions and airspace violations to cyber strikes and election interference – are intended to divert NATO members’ attention towards their own defences, thereby reducing support for Ukraine.
“Russia is deliberately pushing all of us, the NATO allies, to deal with our own matters,” he informed the Sunday Express.
“There have been air incidents and airspace violations, we have had drone incidents, cyberattacks and even the Moldovan elections. They conduct different hybrid operations and disinformation campaigns so that we take focus off Ukraine. This is one of the strategic goals of Russia – they want to operate freely in Ukraine.”
Estonia, which has a 210-mile border with Russia, has directly felt this pressure. Just last week, three MiG-31 fighter jets entered its airspace.
Estonian defence minister Hanno Pevkur warned Russia wants to distract Nato over Ukraine (Image: Eriend Staub)
“This is unprecedented. We have not seen a manned aircraft in NATO airspace for such a long time,” the minister declared.
“Russia is claiming that they were not in our airspace, but we have the radar pictures and were monitoring them long before they entered. The Italian aircraft gave very clear signals and we contacted them many times via radio frequencies. They ignored us.”
Col Gaetano Farina, commander of the Italian Baltic Eagle III mission in Estonia, added: “Not only could the pilots see each other’s faces, but the Russians actually waved.”
Mr Pevkur made it clear that “Russia is testing how far they can go to destabilise society. Is it okay to kill someone? Is it okay to disrupt the air traffic? Is it okay to disrupt the undersea cables?”.
“We have been living next to Russia for centuries. We know how they operate. We know what they do.”
A call by US president Donald Trump for any Russian plane violating NATO airspace to be shot down was echoed by Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna, who said: “The message must be unequivocal: future violations will meet a response – including, if necessary, the interception and downing of intruding aircraft.”
Mr Pevkur confirmed that Estonia was prepared. “We value the society we have built and will not allow Russia to take it away from us,” he stated.
“When there is an intention to start a war from Russia, then there will be a response, a very heavy response, a very quick response.”
However, for this to be effective, NATO must take lessons from Ukraine, he stated, adding: “We must be more precise, increase our speed, and hit them from a much greater distance than they can hit us.”
Britain continues to play a central role in this response, with approximately 900 British soldiers stationed in Estonia as part of Operation Cabrit, the UK’s contribution to NATO’s enhanced forward land forces in the Baltic, Poland and Finland. Some are located just 35 miles from the Russian border.
“The UK understands the value of being here, not only in terms of efforts, but also in terms of aspirations,” the minister expressed. “The cooperation is very good, and Estonia values the UK presence highly.”
However, he cautioned against falling for Russian provocation.
“This is exactly the moment we have to stay calm. We cannot overreact and start a war ourselves. This is what Russia wants.”
Estonia is set to join NATO allies in delivering several hundred tactical reconnaissance drones for Ukraine’s armed forces in a £20million project.
Britain has committed £22billion in military and non-military support for Ukraine, and was the first nation to offer the war-torn country long-range missiles in the form of Storm Shadows, with a range of 155 miles, and main battle tanks.
Last week, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed between Estonian defence titan Defsecintel Solutions and Latvian firm Origin Robotics, marking the start of a partnership aiming to create Europe’s first operational “Drone Wall”. This mobile counter-UAS missile carrier system is designed to protect the Baltics and Poland from potential Russian drone attacks.
“Politicians have called for a Drone Wall. We are ready to build it,” stated Jaanus Tamm, the chief executive of Defsecintel Solutions. “We just need the green light.”