Weekly Significant Activity Report – September 27, 2025

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1. SS: This post analyzes some significant geopolitical developments from September 20-27 involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

   Major events for this week included:

   1. Russia deals with increasing pressure from Trump and Ukrainian strikes as it tries to achieve a military breakthrough in Ukraine’s Donetsk region and a political breakthrough in this week’s Moldovan elections.
   2. New reports illuminate the extent of China’s assistance for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and Russia’s reciprocal support for Chinese preparations to seize Taiwan.
   3. Xi Jinping skipped the UN General Assembly this week to visit Xinjiang and highlight China’s achievements in internal security and economic development.
   4. Russia and China have stepped up efforts to economically support Iran even as an attempt to stop the snapback of sanctions failed.
   5. North Korea signals a new openness to dialogue with the US—so long as its nuclear arsenal is accepted.

   Things to keep a close eye on in coming days:

   1. Will Iran go through with leaving the IAEA in response to a sanctions snapback? If so, will it end there or go further in retaliation?
   2. How will Russia test Trump’s resolve to back Ukraine and Europe’s more assertive defensive posture
   3. Who will come out on top of Moldova’s election?

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