Akbar Novruz

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to the United
States for the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly
is being closely watched as a potential turning point in US-Türkiye
relations. Unlike previous Democratic administrations, which
largely avoided direct engagement with Ankara, the Trump
administration’s approach provides Türkiye with an opportunity to
negotiate across a wide range of strategic, economic, and security
issues.

What kind of turning point might the Erdoğan-Trump meeting
represent in US-Türkiye relations? What could be the key strategic
benefits Türkiye might gain from these talks? What possible effects
could this meeting have on the Palestinian issue? How might this
meeting influence Türkiye’s role within NATO or its relations with
Russia?

Prof. Dr. İrfan Kaya Ülger, political science expert at Kocaeli
University, shared insights with Azernews on the
four-day visit. On the first day, Erdoğan attended a conference
sponsored by Saudi Arabia and France focused on resolving the
Palestinian issue peacefully and promoting the two-state solution.
“Erdoğan then attended the eightyeth session of the UN General
Assembly on Tuesday. He spoke third, after US President Trump and
the President of Indonesia. He will attend the climate summit on
Wednesday,” Ülger explained.

The high-level bilateral meeting with Trump on Thursday is
expected to be particularly significant. “This meeting will
strengthen bilateral trade and military relations between Türkiye
and the US. Türkiye will also express its views strongly on the
issues of Gaza, the establishment of peace in Syria under the new
administration, and other regional disputes,” Ülger said.

Military and defense priorities

A central focus of the discussions will be Türkiye’s return to
the F-35 program, from which it was previously removed due to
sanctions. The meeting will also cover the purchase of forty F-16
Block 70 fighter jets. “Trump needs to be persuaded to agree on
these matters. From a commercial perspective, the purchase of
approximately 250–300 Boeing passenger jets is underway. Türkiye
requires 500 jets, half of which will come from Boeing and the
other half from European Airbus. Erdoğan also reduced and lifted
tariffs on some US agricultural and industrial products at the
beginning of his visit, creating a favorable negotiation
environment for Thursday,” Ülger said.

However, the F-35 and F-16 acquisitions will not depend solely
on Trump’s decision. Congressional approval is necessary.
“Currently, the Republican Party holds a strong position in
Congress. There is a strong possibility that the sale of these F-16
and F-35 jets to Türkiye will be approved before November 5th. If
it is delayed beyond this date, the approval process will become
more difficult,” Ülger noted.

The military gains are crucial for Türkiye. “The most important
things Türkiye can gain from this meeting are weapons in this last
industrial area because Türkiye currently faces an air force
shortage until domestic aircraft production begins. It will either
procure fighter jets from European-based organizations or from the
US. There is a strong possibility of both,” Ülger said.

Political and regional dimensions

Beyond military issues, Erdoğan is expected to press for US
support in Syria. “Türkiye is sensitive to the strengthening of the
administration in Syria under Ahmed Eşar. Erdoğan expects US
support in this regard. Trump supports it, but the Pentagon and
Centcom have obstructed implementation on the ground. This may be
resolved in this meeting,” Ülger explained.

Erdoğan has also consistently highlighted the Gaza conflict.
“Although Israel targeted Hamas’s negotiating team by attacking
Doha, efforts to achieve a ceasefire continue behind the scenes.
Erdoğan, along with leaders of Muslim countries and in the presence
of Trump, discussed the possibility of a ceasefire on Tuesday.
Achieving consensus here is crucial for Türkiye’s international
influence,” Ülger said.

Türkiye is also pushing for a revival of the two-state solution.
“The two-state solution is referenced in numerous UN resolutions,
such as Security Council resolutions 242 and 338, envisioning
Israel returning to its 1967 borders and establishing a Palestinian
state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Recognition of the State
of Palestine has risen to 178 countries and may increase further.
Türkiye’s contributions toward ending the conflict and reviving the
peace process are extraordinary,” he added.

NATO and Russia

Erdoğan’s visit carries implications for NATO and Türkiye’s
relations with Russia. “Türkiye is the most powerful NATO country
after the US in terms of military and land forces. There is growing
resistance within NATO against American patronage, and Türkiye has
often acted independently to defend its national interests,” Ülger
said.

In Ukraine, Türkiye and Russia have cooperated to limit the
conflict’s impact, through corridor agreements and prisoner
exchanges, although substantive issues remain unresolved. “Türkiye
did not join Western sanctions, and its trade with Russia has
doubled or tripled. While Türkiye and Russia are often in conflict
in Syria, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, dialogue remains
essential. Erdoğan-Putin leadership diplomacy has proven effective
in resolving deadlocks, as seen in the Syrian context with Iran
also involved,” Ülger explained.

Looking ahead, Ülger suggests that while the Trump
administration may eventually revert to traditional US policies in
support of Ukraine, Erdoğan’s diplomacy with Russia could prevent
escalation. “Progress can be made through bilateral dialogue, and
leader-to-leader engagement can limit conflict escalation. NATO’s
collective and proactive action, combined with Erdoğan-Putin
dialogue, could play a key role in shaping regional stability,” he
concluded.