Iran’s diplomacy suffered another setback on September 27, when France, Germany and the UK triggered the snapback mechanism over Tehran’s “significant non-performance” under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The move reinstates all pre-2015 United Nations sanctions, freezing assets, imposing travel bans, permitting inspections of Iranian air and sea cargo, including oil tankers, while prohibiting uranium enrichment, missile launches with nuclear potential, technology transfers and reimposing an arms embargo. Yet the key question remains: will these measures inflict enough economic pain to alter Iran’s strategic calculus?

The real constraint on Iran’s economy does not emanate from New York but from Washington. Since the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign of 2018, American sanctions have been enforced with extraterritorial reach. European and Asian banks, shipping companies, insurers and energy firms have avoided Iranian business not out of fear of UN resolutions, but because of the consequences of falling afoul of the US treasury department. The dollar’s dominance in global finance, combined with Washington’s willingness to punish violators, has created a chilling effect far more potent than anything the Security Council could achieve.

The Islamic Republic already operates under near-total financial isolation

Thus, while “snapback” sanctions generate symbolic headlines, their material effect is marginal. The Islamic Republic already operates under near-total financial isolation. Its access to global capital markets is negligible. Oil exports are restricted to a handful of buyers, mostly through covert channels. Reactivation of UN sanctions will not close avenues of commerce that US measures long ago shut.

A second factor limiting the efficacy of “snapback” sanctions is the stance of key global players. China and Russia have disregarded US restrictions when it suited their national interests, building mechanisms such as barter, local currencies, and shell companies, to shield trade with Iran from American scrutiny.

While these arrangements do not normalise Iran’s commerce, they provide enough oxygen to prevent collapse. More importantly, Beijing and Moscow now treat Iran less as a pariah and more as a junior partner in a wider Eurasian order. Their joint declaration with Tehran under the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation categorically rejecting the European initiative was not mere rhetoric but a strategic signal to Washington that the west can no longer dictate terms unilaterally.

Apart from strategic signalling, the Iran–China relationship is likely also propelled by the economic interests of Chinese energy companies. Because Iranian oil carries substantial legal and political risk, it is marketed at steep discounts compared to global prices. Chinese refiners, operating with tacit state approval, keep the margin and, in doing so, have evolved into an influential lobbying constituency within China. Their vested interest in maintaining access to inexpensive Iranian crude not only sustains commercial ties but also reinforces Beijing’s broader willingness to shield Tehran from western pressure.

It is also worth noting that US policymakers, for all their proclamations, have often tolerated Chinese and Russian circumvention. Washington knows that full enforcement could worsen relations with Beijing. The US therefore pressures Tehran enough to weaken the Iranian government, but refrains from pushing China or Russia into open confrontation. The result is a sanctions order riddled with loopholes, which Tehran has learned to exploit.

This asymmetry highlights Tehran’s paradox. The country proclaims independence from western domination, yet its survival hinges on dependence upon Beijing. China continues to buy Iranian oil less out of solidarity and more because it secures a low-priced supply. The moment costs outweigh benefits, Beijing is likely to scale back. Until then, Iran remains a convenient junior partner whose desperation allows Chinese actors to dictate terms.

For Iran’s neighbours, the limited effect of “snapback” sanctions is a mixed blessing. Gulf Arab states recognise that Iran’s lifeline through China and Russia reduces the risk of Iranian government collapse and the chaos it would unleash. But continued Iranian resilience, and the constant threat of renewed Israeli strikes against an economically battered, diplomatically isolated, and militarily vulnerable Iran, also raises risks. Facing existential threats, Tehran could lash out at regional oil infrastructure to compel exporters and importers to pressure Israel to stop striking Iran, or, if technically feasible, dash for a nuclear weapon.

Domestically, the leadership has long managed scarcity, but inequality now fuels public anger. On September 28, Donya-e Eqtesad, Iran’s premier economic daily, reported 45.3 per cent inflation, the highest in 28 months, and a doubling of bread prices over the past year, warning of growing pressure on low-income groups. Meanwhile, the country’s elites flaunt their privileges on social media, enraging the 30 per cent of the population living under the poverty line. US sanctions, far more than UN measures, combined with corruption and mismanagement, increasingly risk provoking bread riots. And government officials, better prepared to suppress the poor at home than to deter Israel abroad, may respond with repression.

Western policymakers should therefore temper expectations. The “snapback” mechanism was conceived in an era when multilateral consensus on Iran was still possible. That era has ended. The global order is increasingly fragmented, with China and Russia openly contesting western initiatives.

Quick%20facts

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A Dog’s Journey 

Directed by: Gail Mancuso

Starring: Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad, Marg Helgenberger, Betty Gilpin, Kathryn Prescott

3 out of 5 stars

THE BIO

BIO:
Born in RAK on December 9, 1983
Lives in Abu Dhabi with her family
She graduated from Emirates University in 2007 with a BA in architectural engineering
Her motto in life is her grandmother’s saying “That who created you will not have you get lost”
Her ambition is to spread UAE’s culture of love and acceptance through serving coffee, the country’s traditional coffee in particular.

Lexus LX700h specs

Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor

Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh590,000

Killing of Qassem SuleimaniWhat are the influencer academy modules?
Mastery of audio-visual content creation. 
Cinematography, shots and movement.
All aspects of post-production.
Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
Tourism industry knowledge.
Professional ethics.
The%20specs%20

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More from Neighbourhood Watch:How to apply for a drone permit
Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
Submit their request
What are the regulations?
Fly it within visual line of sight
Never over populated areas
Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
Should have a live feed of the drone flight
Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
COMPANY%20PROFILE

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Killing of Qassem SuleimaniMATCH INFO

Manchester United 1 (Rashford 36′)

Liverpool 1 (Lallana 84′)

Man of the match: Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)

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EA Sports FC 26

Publisher: EA Sports

Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S

Rating: 3/5

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: HyperSpace

 

Started: 2020

 

Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez

 

Based: Dubai, UAE

 

Sector: Entertainment 

 

Number of staff: 210 

 

Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners

Killing of Qassem SuleimaniUAE currency: the story behind the money in your pocketsUAE currency: the story behind the money in your pocketsJetour T1 specs

Engine: 2-litre turbocharged

Power: 254hp

Torque: 390Nm

Price: From Dh126,000

Available: Now

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

 

More from Neighbourhood Watch:Emergency phone numbers in the UAE

Estijaba – 8001717 –  number to call to request coronavirus testing

Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111

Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre

Emirates airline – 600555555

Etihad Airways – 600555666

Ambulance – 998

Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries

How%20champions%20are%20made

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Key products and UAE prices

iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229

iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649

iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179

Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.

Benefits of first-time home buyers’ scheme
Priority access to new homes from participating developers
Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
Flexible payment plans from developers
Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
MATCH INFO

Crawley Town 3 (Tsaroulla 50′, Nadesan 53′, Tunnicliffe 70′)

Leeds United 0 

SPEC%20SHEET

%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20M2%2C%208-core%20CPU%2C%20up%20to%2010-core%20CPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2013.6-inch%20Liquid%20Retina%2C%202560%20x%201664%2C%20224ppi%2C%20500%20nits%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20wide%20colour%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F16%2F24GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%20%2F%201%2F2TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Thunderbolt%203%20(2)%2C%203.5mm%20audio%2C%20Touch%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%206%2C%20Bluetooth%205.0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2052.6Wh%20lithium-polymer%2C%20up%20to%2018%20hours%2C%20MagSafe%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECamera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201080p%20FaceTime%20HD%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Support%20for%20Apple%20ProRes%2C%20HDR%20with%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%20HDR10%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAudio%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204-speaker%20system%2C%20wide%20stereo%2C%20support%20for%20Dolby%20Atmos%2C%20Spatial%20Audio%20and%20dynamic%20head%20tracking%20(with%20AirPods)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Silver%2C%20space%20grey%2C%20starlight%2C%20midnight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MacBook%20Air%2C%2030W%20or%2035W%20dual-port%20power%20adapter%2C%20USB-C-to-MagSafe%20cable%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh4%2C999%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Key facilities
Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
Premier League-standard football pitch
400m Olympic running track
NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
600-seat auditorium
Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
Specialist robotics and science laboratories
AR and VR-enabled learning centres
Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The biog

First Job: Abu Dhabi Department of Petroleum in 1974  
Current role: Chairperson of Al Maskari Holding since 2008
Career high: Regularly cited on Forbes list of 100 most powerful Arab Businesswomen
Achievement: Helped establish Al Maskari Medical Centre in 1969 in Abu Dhabi’s Western Region
Future plan: Will now concentrate on her charitable work

Company Profile

Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million