Senate Democrats shot down a Republican spending bill that would have kept the government operating until November, but that vote may have contained the seeds of their defeat.
While forty four Democrats (and Republican iconoclast Rand Paul) voted no, two Democrats and one Democrat-allied independent sided with the Republican majority.
Independent Angus King of Maine is always a bit of a wildcard. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania has been charting his own path for nearly a year. But Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, while not a liberal firebrand, is not your typical political maverick.
She is, however, up for re-election next year in a state that Donald Trump carried in 2024 and which has been slowly trending Republican for years.
In her statement explaining her vote, she expressed concern about the economic toll government closure would have on Nevada. She might also be worried about the toll it could take on her political prospects as an incumbent on the ballot when voters turn angry.
She’s not the only member of her party from a battleground state who will be on the ballot in 2026, either. Democrats in Georgia, Virginia and Colorado could also start feeling the heat.
And while incumbents from Minnesota, Michigan and New Hampshire have chosen to retire rather than run for re-election, they might worry that a shutdown puts Democratic control of their seats at risk, too.
Republican Senate leader John Thune says that he is already hearing from some Democrats who are uneasy with the way the shutdown is playing out. He’s planning a series of funding votes in the coming days to keep the pressure on.
There were no new defections during the vote on Wednesday, but if five more Democrats break ranks, the shutdown will end – whether the rest of the Democratic Party wants it to or not.